Everything 'Under' Control: Tanaka & Koehler Matchup Gives Us Plenty of Reasons to Bet the Total

Ross Benjamin

Monday, June 15, 2015 12:19 PM UTC

Monday, Jun. 15, 2015 12:19 PM UTC

Our MLB consultant provides us with a betting preview article on Monday’s Yankees/Marlins game. Can Miami’s Tom Koehler continue his dominant pitching at home? Join us in reading this insightful piece which concludes with an MLB pick on the total.

Yankees make rare Trip to South Florida
Miami will host the New York Yankees on Monday at 7:10 PM ET. According to the MLB betting odds at Pinnacle, the Yankees are a -152 money line favorite, and the posted total is 7.0.


Starting Pitchers
The Yankees red-hot starter Masahiro Tanaka will take the mound on Monday. Tanaka has gone 4-0 in his last four starts, posted a microscopic 0.99 ERA, 0.55 WHIP, and compiled a better than 14:1 strikeout to walk ratio. Tanaka has gone a perfect 3-0 on the road this season with an excellent 0.89 ERA and 0.49 WHIP.

The Marlins will go with veteran right-hander Tom Koehler today. Koehler has a huge disparity in his home/away splits this season. He does enter this outing in terrible form over his last three starts with a 6.35 ERA and 1.77 WHIP. However, each of those outings came on the road. The Miami hurler has posted a stellar 1.72 ERA in five starts at home, and four of the five went under the total. This will be his first career start versus the Yankees.

Compare MLB Futures Odds on Offer for World Series & Division Winners

Yankees Notes
The Yankees are coming off a 5-3 win at Baltimore on Sunday which enabled them to halt a three game losing streak. Prior to that three game slide, the Yankees had won seven in a row. “The Bronx Bombers” have smacked 78 home runs this season in their first 62 games. They’ve done most of that damage at home, evidenced by averaging 1.6 home runs per game at Yankee Stadium, and just 1.0 per contest on the road. Miami is one of the toughest ball parks in Major League Baseball to hit home runs.


Marlins Update
Miami suffered a 4-1 home loss to Colorado on Sunday which ended a modest three game winning streak. After getting off to an uninspiring start to the 2015 MLB campaign, Miami has shown signs of life recently going 7-4 in their last eleven games. The Marlins have gone 5-0-1 under the total in the last six, and 10-3-1 under the total during their previous fourteen games. They’ve hit just 52 home runs in their first 64 games, and 27 of those were by superstar slugger Giancarlo Stanton.


Final Analysis
The Yankees won’t have the benefit of having a designated hitter tonight in a National League stadium. I look for Tanaka to have another strong outing against a Miami team which possesses little power beyond Giancarlo Stanton. Tom Koehler has been super at home this season, and he’ll need to be so again in order for the Marlins to have a realistic chance. I like this game to be a low scoring affair for one of my MLB picks on Monday. Pinnacle provides us with the best price on the total.

MLB Pick: Yankees and Marlins under 7.0 (-110) at Pinnacle.

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