Epic Pitching Mismatch Prompts Jays Run Line Pick Against Orioles

Ross Benjamin

Saturday, September 5, 2015 12:52 PM GMT

We’re going to examine Saturday’s early MLB game between Baltimore and Toronto. Take the time to read this insightful betting preview article culminating with our free MLB pick.

Early Saturday AL East Battle
Toronto will host Baltimore in a matinee affair on Saturday at the Rogers Centre. The opening pitch for the second of this three game series is slated for 1:07 PM ET. Baltimore defeated Toronto in the series opener on Friday by the score of 10-2. The Blue Jays are 7-6 in this AL East head to head series in 2015.

 

Teams Headed in Opposite Directions
Despite last night’s 10-2 win, Baltimore is a dismal 3-12 during their last fifteen games, and has virtually played itself out of playoff contention. As a matter of fact, they’ve gone from being 3.0 games behind the Blue Jays on 8/20 to 11.0 down heading into today. Baltimore’s road woes this season have been the main reason why they won’t be playing baseball in October. They’re a very respectable 40-28 (.588) at home but an awful 25-40 (.385) in away games.

 

Blue Jays Destined for Playoff Baseball
Despite last night’s loss, Toronto has gone an outstanding 26-7 over their last thirty-three games. They enter today atop the AL East standings with a narrow half game lead over the Yankees. They’re also 7.0 games ahead of Minnesota for the final American League wild card spot with each team having 28 games left to play.

 

Starting Pitchers
Baltimore’s Mike Wright will make the start in Toronto today. Wright is 2-3 in six starts with a lofty 4.99 ERA this year. This will be his first start since 6/19. He was absolutely brutal in his previous three starts, posting a monster 12.20 ERA and 2.43 WHIP during those outings. His one start versus Toronto this year is one he certainly would like to forget. The 25 year old right-hander allowed 4 earned runs and walked 4 while lasting just 1 1/3 innings.

David Price has been terrific in day games starts this season, posting an excellent 1.76 ERA, and his teams (Toronto/Detroit) have gone 9-1 in those games. The veteran southpaw made one start versus Baltimore in 2015, and allowed 1 earned run while striking out 12 during 7.0 innings of work.

 

Final Analysis
The Blue Jays bats have sizzled over the last five weeks and hence their successful winning surge. During their last seven games, they’ve averaged 6.1 runs per game, and had a terrific .888 OPS. Toronto has gone an outstanding 45-25 (.643) at the Rogers Centre in 2015, and has a dominating +1.9 run per game differential in those seventy contests.

Even with the 17 runs they’ve scored the last two days, Baltimore has a terrible .214 team batting average and .639 OPS over their previous seven games. Before that recent offensive outburst, Baltimore scored 3 runs or less in twelve of their previous thirteen games.

This will be a starting pitching mismatch of epic proportions today. I’m calling for a decisive Toronto win on Saturday for one of my MLB picks. Pinnacle provides us with the cheapest price on the run-line.

MLB Pick: Play Toronto -1.5 (-132) on the run-line at Pinnacle.