Elite Pitcher to Keep Padres vs. Angels Below MLB Odds Total

David Lawrence

Monday, May 25, 2015 12:26 PM GMT

Monday, May. 25, 2015 12:26 PM GMT

Can San Diego cash on the MLB betting lines in L.A. on a continuation of a very short-distance road swing? Tonight they face the city’s other major-league team with Angels of Anaheim.

The San Diego Padres Can Win Because…
They have a solid pitcher on the mound, someone who’s modest ERA is in part a product of shorter outings, perhaps more than pure limitations in terms of quality. Tyson Ross is a good major-league pitcher. He’s not great, but he’s good. His ERA is 3.93, and while that number isn’t great, it’s something he can build on, and in fact, he’s building on it in real time. Ross’ main weakness is that he goes only five innings in too many of his starts. He doesn’t get hit hard, but he doesn’t go long enough in a game to keep his ERA down. Let’s illustrate what’s been going on with Ross and then note what he’s doing to address his situation:

Ross has four outings this season in which he’s failed to complete the sixth inning. In three of those games, he didn’t even get an out in the fifth inning. Yet, while having lots of short starts, Ross has not gotten clobbered. The most runs he’s allowed in any of his nine starts is four, and that was a five-inning start against the Astros on April 28. He’s allowed under three runs in a majority of his nine starts (five), and he’s been pretty good at pitching out of trouble. The point to make with Ross, then, is that if he can go six or 6 2/3 or seven innings and give up two runs, his ERA is going to go down. The five-inning, two-run outings he’s posted on multiple occasions this year just have to be lengthened by an inning or two.

In Ross’ last outing, he made a small step forward, going seven complete innings and giving up three runs on just four hits against the Chicago Cubs. That’s a little closer to what the Padres are looking for from him. When you realize that the Angels just got roughed up twice on Saturday and Sunday by the Boston Red Sox – 8-3 and then 6-1 – the MLB odds underdog Padres just might be able to take advantage here.

Check out Dave's MLB picks for Mariners vs. Rays, too

The Los Angeles Angels Can Win Because…
Starting pitcher Jered Weaver is improving. Weaver is an elite pitcher, but this season just hasn’t gone smoothly thus far. However, Weaver is bringing things in the right direction. He’s gaining strength and consistency. Entering his start on May 8 against Houston, Weaver had a 6.29 ERA. He has whittled that down to 4.37 in his last three starts, which have seen him give up a total of four runs in 23 1/3 innings, which is exceptionally good. He pitched a complete-game shutout on May 8 against Houston, and followed that up with a 7 1/3-inning, one-run game on May 15 against Baltimore. In his last start on May 20 against Toronto, he allowed three runs on four hits in seven innings. He has stabilized, and should be viewed as the better pitcher here.

 

Baseball Betting Outlook
The Padres bats came to life yesterday but don’t expect that to be a trend. They’ve been really laboring at the plate before that outing. Weaver has a 3.26 ERA at home while Ross has a 3.24 ERA this month, so with the pitching matchup looking tight, take under with your MLB picks.

MLB Pick: Under at Bovada

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