Easy Pick on Yankees RL & the 'Over' as NY Owns the Edge Against Braves

Darin Zank

Saturday, August 29, 2015 1:22 PM UTC

Saturday, Aug. 29, 2015 1:22 PM UTC

A pair of rookies hit the hill in Atlanta tonight as the Yankees & Braves play Game 2 of their interleague series. New York is a solid MLB odds favorite providing a play on an alternative line.

Yanks-Braves Saturday Odds
As of this writing the best price we could find on New York with Luis Severino was the -183 offered at BetOnline, while Atlanta and Matt Wisler were getting +180 at 5Dimes. The Yanks could also be gotten at a price of -110 on the run line at 5Dimes.


The Situation
After struggling to score runs earlier this week New York broke loose in Game 1 of this series Friday night, putting up a five-spot in the first inning and a four-spot in the second on its way to a 15-4 victory. So New York is 3-5 over its last eight games, while Atlanta has lost three in a row and 14 of its last 17.

At 70-57 New York trails division-leading Toronto by a game and a half in the AL East, but leads the American League wild-card race by four games over second-place Texas.

On the homey side of this match-up Atlanta, at 54-74, is struggling through a lost season, which probably can't end soon enough.

This is the first series between these teams since 2012.


Saturday's Starters
Wisler (5-4, 5.43) is just three-for-12 on quality starts this season, in part because of a short leash, but also some poor performances. Last Sunday he got bombed by the Chicago Cubs for seven runs, and four home runs, in less than three innings, although over his two previous starts he held Tampa and San Diego to four runs through 10 innings. On the season Wisler has allowed 80 hits, including 12 homers, through 65 innings, with 23 walks and 41 strikeouts.

Atlanta, a team that's 20 games under .500 overall, is 6-6 in Wisler's starts, with the totals splitting 6-6.

Severino (1-2, 2.74) is two-for-four on quality starts since joining the Big Club three weeks ago, but really, he's been solid. Last Saturday he held Cleveland to one run through six innings, while just before that he gave up three runs in six innings against a tough Toronto lineup, with nine strikeouts. On the whole Severino has allowed 17 hits through 23 innings as a Major Leaguer, walked eight and struck out 24.

The Yankees are 1-3 in Severino's starts, but that isn't his fault.

Neither of these starting pitchers has ever faced today's opponents before.


Saturday's Batting Splits
New York ranks 17th in the Majors this season against right-handed pitching with a .251 team batting average, and 15th with a .316 team on-base percentage.

Atlanta ranks 12th against righties with a .256 team BA and 16th with a .314 team OBP.

But when we throw in some power numbers it becomes apparent the Yanks own an advantage with the sticks.


Ballpark Totals Factor
OVERS are 32-23 in games played at Turner Field this season, which are averaging 8.4 runs per.


Injury Update
New York 1B Mark Teixeira has missed recent action with a sore shin, and is questionable for today.


Yanks-Braves Saturday Free Picks
New York gets the check marks in the pitching match-up, with the sticks and in the bullpen comparison, so this MLB pick is obvious to us. It also gives us a chance to play the visiting team on the run line. Also, we can see this game getting to 6-2 or so, so we'll go with the OVER.

MLB Picks: New York against the Run Line and OVER 7.5 runs (+100) at Heritage.

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