Early Value To Profit From When Placing Wednesday's MLB Picks

Ian Cameron

Tuesday, May 10, 2016 6:43 PM UTC

Tuesday, May. 10, 2016 6:43 PM UTC

Sports handicapper Ian Cameron provides a look at MLB Overnight Betting Lines for the games taking place on Wednesday, May 11. See the MLB picks that we've got going on for you!

Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Cincinnati Reds
The Pittsburgh Pirates are the better of these teams and have as good or better of a lineup, a better starting pitching particularly in this matchup and a better bullpen and we have a reasonable road chalk price of approximately -138 to back the Pirates here on Wednesday night. Francisco Liriano has had B2B strong starts for the Pirates. The veteran lefty has allowed just 3 runs in 13.2 innings of work over his last two outings against the Reds and Cardinals while issuing just 2 walks and striking out 16 in those games. Some pitchers have a tough time pitching in a hitter’s park like this one but Liriano has yielded 3 runs or less in five of his last six starts here at Great American Ballpark in Cincinnati.

Pittsburgh is a perfect 4-0 in Liriano’s last four starts against Cincinnati dating back to last season including 2-0 already in 2016. On the flip side, Tim Adleman, who was recently inserted into the rotation for the Reds because of all the starters currently on the DL for this team, will be on the mound in this game. Adleman is not someone that I consider to be ready for Major League starting duty at this stage of his career. He was drafted in the 24th round of the 2010 draft and toiled in the minor leagues for his whole career until a recent call-up to Cincinnati for no other reason except that the Reds had no other options and nowhere else to turn for their depleted rotation.

He has allowed 3 runs in 11 innings over his first two starts against Pittsburgh and Milwaukee but this will be a 2nd look for the Pirates against him and I expect to see a much better plate approach from them this time around. Adleman’s ERA sits at a respectable 2.45 but his FIP is 5.25 and xFIP is 4.59, his BABIP is an incredibly low .185 and his strand rate is at 98% dodging out of trouble routinely all of which indicates he is likely to see some regression come his way starting as early as this game. Adleman has not lasted beyond 6 innings in his two previous starts bringing the Major League’s worst bullpen from Cincinnati into play in the latter innings. Pittsburgh should enjoy a pitching advantage throughout in this game and the price is more than reasonable to endorse the Pirates on Wednesday night based on the MLB odds.

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Free MLB Pick: Pittsburgh Pirates -137
Best Line Offered: at BetOnline


Detroit Tigers vs. Washington Nationals
Jordan Zimmermann will face his former team as he returns to Washington to face the Nationals for the first time since leaving the team in the offseason to sign a blockbuster long-term deal with the Detroit Tigers. On the flip side, Max Scherzer will face one of the two teams he used to be with as the former Tiger will go up against his old mates here. Scherzer has not been the same elite level pitcher for a while now and this goes all the way back to the second half of last season when his struggles began. He is not a bad pitcher, not at all.

He’s still capable but Scherzer is still being priced like an elite, Kershaw level ace pitcher and right now he isn’t. His walk rate per 9 innings is the highest it has been in his career while his strikeouts per 9 innings are down below 10 for the first time since 2011 and most alarming of all is that Scherzer’s swinging strike rate has declined from 15.3% last year to 12.6% in 2016. He is not getting as many swings and misses from opposing hitters. Scherzer was rocked in his last start by the Chicago Cubs for 7 runs in just 5 innings and he has a 5.25 ERA in 2 home starts this season.

On the flip side, Jordan Zimmermann so far has lived up to the mammoth contract he signed in the offseason with the Detroit Tigers. He has a 1.10 ERA in 6 starts and the Tigers have gone 5-1 during those games and that includes a perfect 3-0 record for Zimmermann on the road where he has allowed just a single run in 19.1 innings of work. With Zimmermann pitching as well as he has so far this season, this rich underdog price with Detroit +152 is too good to pass up. Detroit’s bullpen has been a sore spot and struggled at times which is a concern so I recommend splitting up your wager on Detroit in this game betting half of it on the Tigers in the first 5 innings and the other half on the Tigers for the full game for these MLB picks.

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Free MLB Pick: Detroit Tigers +152
Best Line Offered: at Heritage

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