Early MLB Underdog Worth Grabbing Before ML Odds Shift

Ian Cameron

Thursday, May 12, 2016 7:39 PM GMT

Get the early MLB betting edge with these two great plays for Friday evening on baseball's fantastic slate. Do not miss out on the opportunity to win & beat your book!

New York Mets vs. Colorado Rockies
Matt Harvey will make his first ever start at Coors Field when he takes on the Colorado Rockies and their promising young starter Jonathan Gray who was a first round 3rd overall pick of the Rockies in the 2013 MLB Draft. I’m a believer in Gray and he has strung together B2B dominant outings against San Diego and San Francisco allowing just 2 runs in 13 innings of work in those two starts combined. He has a strong ratio of 6 walks and 28 strikeouts in 21.2 innings of work this season but his one bug-a-boo has been pitching here at Coors Field which isn’t atypical of young pitchers as often they need time to get accustomed to pitching well in such an extreme hitters park as this one. 

Gray has a very rough 11.42 home ERA in two starts this season which is a concern as he hasn’t provided evidence of being able to shut down opposing hitters at Coors Field. That being said, Matt Harvey’s been OK but far from dominant for the NY Mets so far this season. He has a 4.50 ERA overall and a 4.84 ERA on the road allowing 13 runs on 25 hits in 22.1 innings pitched on the road. The biggest issue for Harvey in this start is his rapidly declining ground ball rate which is down from 46% last season to 39.2% in 2016 and his swinging strike rate has also slipped from 11.6 to 10.8% and that is evidence that points toward Harvey possibly struggling in this setting.

I’m going to recommend Colorado as a solid home underdog in this game as well as Over the total of 10.5 runs on the MLB odds as insurance in case Jonathan Gray’s woes at Coors Field continue. However, if Gray pitches more like he did in his last two starts, the Rockies are a very live dog in this game.

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Free MLB Pick: Colorado +120 and Over 10
Best Line Offered: at Bookmaker

 

San Francisco Giants vs. Arizona Diamondbacks
Jeff Samardzija will face Shelby Miller in this NL West series opener on Friday night. Miller has very good stuff but all of it is meaningless when you can’t muster any sort of control and command with your pitches and that has been the problem all season long for Miller in 2016. He has issues an insanely high 21 walks in 29.1 innings this season which speaks to his control issues and we’ve seen Miller completely lose track of the strike zone repeatedly. He has a 8.24 ERA at home allowing 18 runs on 24 hits in 19.2 innings and 6 of his 7 home runs allowed have been here at Chase Field and there is potential for the roof to be open for this game.

San Francisco’s lineup finally got out of their funk in their last game against Toronto scoring 5 runs in a victory so they should be able to take advantage of Miller’s ongoing problems here. On the flip side, Jeff Samardzija is off B2B quality starts throwing 15.2 innings while allowing just 3 runs combined against Cincinnati and Colorado. However, he threw 115 pitches against the Reds and a season high 123 pitches in his last start against the Rockies.

The high pitch counts could result in a diminished performance from Samardzija here as certain pitchers tend not to be as sharp or have as much pop in their arm in their next start after throwing that many pitches in consecutive games. It’s worth noting the last time Samardzija topped 115 pitches in a start this season, he allowed 5 runs in 5.2 innings the next time out against a light hitting San Diego Padres lineup. The Over is 5-1 in Shelby Miller’s 6 starts this season including 3-0 to the Over at Chase Field. I expect more of the same in this game and backing it as one of my MLB picks.

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Free MLB Pick: Over 9
Best Line Offered: at BetOnline