Early MLB Betting Lines Show Value Lies On Home Chalk

Ian Cameron

Friday, June 10, 2016 7:00 PM UTC

Friday, Jun. 10, 2016 7:00 PM UTC

Let's take a look at MLB Overnight Betting Lines for the games taking place on Saturday, so you can place your bets early and profit from the early MLB Odds.

Baltimore Orioles vs. Toronto Blue Jays
I’m willing to give J.A. Happ a break for a rare rough outing for him in his last start against Detroit as he was shelled for 6 runs in 5 innings as the Tigers have been mashing quality lefties for several games now and I think Happ has shown us more than enough good things to trust him to bounce back at home against the Baltimore Orioles on Saturday. 

Happ has allowed 3 runs or less in four of his five home starts at the Rogers Centre and the Jays have gone 4-1 as a team in his 5 home starts. Baltimore is hitting worse against lefties owning a .221 batting average against southpaws and scoring 3.96 runs per game which are far weaker stats than what the Orioles do against right-handers.

On the flip side, Mike Wright is an average arm at best for the Orioles and has struggled with the Blue Jays in the past allowing 7 runs on 10 hits in 5.1 innings pitched here at the Rogers Centre in his career. Wright has a 5.91 road ERA and he is 0-3 in his career against Toronto including a loss earlier this season.

This is not the greatest price to be laying with Toronto with Baltimore on a good run of late but the Jays are still the call for me in this game and in case we get more struggles from the Jays bullpen, I will split up this bet between the first 5 innings and the full game.

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Free MLB Pick:  Toronto -140 (Half on F5 Innings, Half On Full Game)
Best Line Offered:  at Bookmaker


Texas Rangers vs. Seattle Mariners
James Paxton has a pair of losses to show for his return to the Seattle Mariners rotation but in reality, he has pitched much better than the bottom line shows. He has allowed 11 runs in 9.2 innings in a pair of starts against San Diego and Cleveland but only 4 of those runs were earned with some bad defense and errors behind him in the field costing him.

The fact of the matter is Paxton deserved a much better fate. When he was rocked by San Diego, not every ball was hit hard but they just kept finding holes where fielders had vacated the area. In his next start against Cleveland, he shut them down allowing a single earned run in 6 innings but the defensive miscues hurt his stat line.

So while it will read that Seattle is 0-2 in Paxton’s two starts and that he is not a good pitcher, his advanced metrics tell a much different story. Paxton has a majestic ratio of 2 walks and 17 strikeouts in his last 9.2 innings pitched and the Mariners lefty has less than 2 walks and more than 15 strikeouts per 9 innings this season and has seen his swinging strike rate skyrocket up from 7.2% last season to 14.3% in 2016.

These are all numbers that show Paxton should have a good chance of shutting down opposing hitters and I think he can fare pretty good here in this matchup as he’s held Texas to a run or less in three of four starts against them in his career. Colby Lewis is showing the same pattern he has in recent years. He starts out strong but as the innings pile up and the weather gets hotter, he struggles more and more.

Lewis has allowed 10 runs on 18 hits in his last 17 innings of work and Texas is just 2-4 in Colby Lewis previous 6 starts against Seattle. Bettors that endorsed Seattle earlier this week with Paxton deserved a better fate and I think they will finally get to collect on Saturday night as I expect a strong showing from Paxton leading to a Mariners win.

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Free MLB Pick:  Seattle -124
Best Line Offered:  at BetOnline

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