Duffy & Royals Superior to Boston's Sticks: Pick KC & Over in Series Opener

Darin Zank

Thursday, August 20, 2015 12:06 PM UTC

Thursday, Aug. 20, 2015 12:06 PM UTC

Boston has shown some life as of late, especially at the bat. Can Sox sticks help produce an 11th-straight OVER when they open a four-game series with Kansas City at Fenway Park tonight? Let's review the MLB odds.

Royals-Red Sox Thursday Odds
As of this writing the best line we could find on Boston with Wade Miley was the +107 offered at GTBets, while Kansas City and Danny Duffy could be found giving -110 at JustBet. And the total on tonight's game sat at nine runs, with most of the grease leaning toward the UNDER.


The Situation
Boston just took two of three games at home from Cleveland, winning Wednesday's rubber match 6-4. So the Sox have won three of their last four series, and four of their last six games.

At 54-66 Boston is out of the playoff race in the American League, but working on building some momentum for next season.

KC, meanwhile, just swept a pair of games at Cincinnati, winning Wednesday 4-3. So the Royals have won four series in a row, and 10 of their last 12 games.

At 73-46 Kansas City leads the Yankees by six games in the battle for the best record in the American League.

This is the second encounter between these teams this season; back in June the Sox took two of three games from the Royals down at Kauffman Stadium, and all three games played OVER the totals, as the teams combined to rack up 36 runs.


Thursday's Mound Match-Up
Miley (9-9, 4.58) is 12-for-24 on quality starts this season, alternating good and bad as of late. Three starts ago he held Tampa to two runs through 6 2/3 innings; next time out he gave up five runs in six innings against Detroit; but last time out he held Seattle to two runs through seven innings. For the season Miley has allowed 141 hits through 140 innings, walked 52 and struck out 106.

Boston s 11-13 in Miley's starts, with the totals splitting 12-12.

Miley has started once this season against Kansas City, back in June, when he tossed six innings of shutout ball in a 13-2 Sox romp.

Duffy (6-5, 4.03) is just seven-for-18 on quality starts, but two for his last three. Last Friday he held the Angels to one run through six innings, and over his last three starts he's allowed five runs through 16 1/3 innings. On the season Duffy has allowed 98 hits through 98 innings, walked 38 and struck out 58.

The Royals are 12-6 in Duffy's starts, with the totals leaning UNDER by an 11-7 margin.

In his most recent outing against Boston, in July of last season, Duffy limited the Sox to one earned runs through 6 2/3 innings, although KC lost that game 2-1.


Thursday's Batting Splits
Kansas City ranks fifth in the Majors right now against left-handed pitching with a .269 team batting average, and 14th with a .320 team on-base percentage.

Boston, meanwhile, ranks fourth against lefties with a .272 team average and fifth with a .335 team OBP.


Ballpark Totals Factor
The OVERS are 33-26 in games played at Fenway this season, which are averaging 10.3 runs per, second-most among all ML ballparks.


Royals-Sox Thursday Free Picks
While Boston has been rocking with the sticks as of late, we give Duffy a short edge in the pitching match-up, and Kansas City a big edge in the bullpen comparison. So we like the Royals for tonight's MLB pick.

Also, Boston has played 10 OVERS in a row, and we'll bet that streak to continue.

MLB Picks: Kansas City and OVER nine runs (+104) at Pinnacle

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