Duffy & Price Add A Lot Of Value To The Under In Royals vs Red Sox Matchup

David Price

Charles Stark

Saturday, August 27, 2016 3:25 PM UTC

Saturday, Aug. 27, 2016 3:25 PM UTC

Two very talented left-handers face off tonight at Fenway Park when Red Sox host the Royals. Both teams are in the playoff hunt and our capper has the scoop on the best MLB Pick for this matchup.

Two extremely good left-handers take the mound today in Boston when Danny Duffy of the Kansas City Royals takes on David Price of the Boston Red Sox. Both teams are in the hunt for the playoffs and every game is important coming down the stretch. Kansas City has been hot lately and Boston is the best hitting team in baseball but have the oddsmakers set the total on this game too high?


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Kansas City Royals
Danny Duffy takes the hill for Kansas City and comes in with a 2.66 ERA and 1.01 whip along with an 11-1 record. Probably the most impressive statistic with Duffy taking the mound is the fact that Kansas City has won the last 10 times he has started so there might be some value in backing him on the plus money line. For me, I like the pitching matchup from both sides and I believe Duffy will be able to do enough against a very good offensive team in Boston to hold them to a reasonable number. In his last 10 starts the most runs he has given up is four in which he did just one time at Detroit in mid-July but then he came back to face the Tigers again just two weeks ago and allowed one earned run off a three hits in almost 8 innings of work. He has been lights out in his last five starts allowing just five total earned runs going deep in each of those games putting in about 37 innings of work. 

Offensively KC has been finding ways to win games but one thing I've noted time and time again is how different of a hitting team they are between at home and on the road. All of their offensive statistics drop quite dramatically which makes me believe they might have a tough time producing runs today against Duffy's counterpart, another extremely good left-hander.


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Boston Red Sox
David Price starts for Boston with a 4.00 ERA and 1.23 whip and a surprising 4.25 ERA at home this season. He has not been his normal dominant self this season but it seems in his last few starts he is coming around. Against Kansas City earlier this year he was solid allowing just two earned runs off of five hits in seven innings. Recently he has been really good and has allowed just four earned runs in his last three starts with allowing just one earned run in his last two. I look for him to springboard off his last two starts where he pitched really well on the road against Baltimore and Tampa Bay allowing that one earned run off of just six hits in 14 innings. Looking at his complete body of work over his last 10 games he really has not got thumped that much and has been more hot than cold, today even versus a Kansas City team that has been hot he does get the face them in Boston which should only benefit him today despite his overall home numbers. 

Offensively  Boston is the best hitting team in baseball and are very difficult team to keep off the board. However, they're facing one of the best pitchers in baseball in Duffy so I expect their damage to be held to a minimum.


MLB odds
Oddsmakers have set the total for this game at 8 across the board with a little bit higher juice on the over. For my MLB pick in this matchup, I'm going to back under the total and grab some value like at Heritage sports +100. Both of these pitchers have the capability to put up a lot of zeros and I think runs will come at a premium today in Boston.


Free MLB Pick: Under 8 
Best Line Offered: at 5Dimes
July record: 13-9
August record: 13-11-1

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