Double Tuesday's Profit When Betting These O/U MLB Picks

Blake Snell

Tuesday, July 19, 2016 3:04 PM GMT

Our expert MLB handicapper has cherry-picked the top totals on the board for your Tuesday card. Read on as he breaks down the picks to boost your bankroll!

Texas Rangers vs. Los Angeles Angels 
Tim Lincecum has been pretty bad in his return to the major leagues, and I don’t think his road back gets any better against the Rangers on Tuesday night. On the year over just five games started, Lincecum has put up a 6.85 ERA, 2.07 WHIP, 21/11 K/BB rate, and .365 batting average against. Looking at his advanced stats, you see a pitcher who is getting hit hard and fooling nobody as well. So far in 23.2 innings pitched, Lincecum’s allowed balls in play have been pulled 56.6% of the time, which is double digit percentage points above any other point in his career. Lincecum and his surgically repaired hip better figure out how to pitch with an 88 mph fastball right quick, or his comeback won’t last very long with the Angels.

On the other side of this equation is Texas starter, Kyle Lohse, who is making his second start of the year after allowing 6 earned runs in five innings in his first against Minnesota. Lohse faces a tough matchup with the Angels here, who are 35-27 O-U against right handed starters and average 4.9 runs against them as well.

This is the typical matchup in which both pitchers can’t be trusted where I like taking the Over, figuring that both or even just one will have a poor outing. That seems like a given here, and with Arlington in July we will have weather becoming a factor as well. Take over 9 while you still can as one of your Tuesday MLB Picks.

 

Free MLB Pick: Over 9 -135 
Best Line Offered: 
at BetOnline

[/]{"component":"oddswidget", "eventId":2993514, "sportsbooksIds":[1096,1537,238,93,139], "LineTypeId":3, "PeriodTypeId":1 }[/]

 

Tampa Bay Rays vs. Colorado Rockies
One of Tampa Bay’s top pitching prospects gets a challenging start on Tuesday, as he faces the Rockies at Coors Field in mile high Denver. The young lefty has had a bit of success so far this year, although his 1-4 record doesn’t show it. His other stats indicate a 3.69 ERA, 1.58 WHIP, 27/17 K/BB rate, and .260 batting average allowed. On the year, Snell has only given up 3 earned runs in a game once in six starts. He has also been very hard on right-handers, only allowing a .253 batting average allowed, but only .185 on the road. The good news about Snell in this spot is that he does not give up home runs often, especially good when pitching in Colorado. In 31.2 innings pitched this year Snell has only given up one dinger.

Matching up against Snell in this game is Tyler Chatwood, who I believe is Colorado’s most promising inning’s eater. On the year, Chatwood has put up very admirable numbers – a 3.29 ERA, 59/36 K/BB rate, 1.29 WHIP, and .242 batting average allowed. The key to Chatwood’s success this year has been his increasing ground ball rate. At 58%, his ground ball rate is over 12% higher than what he put up last year. Ground balls and pitching for Colorado are a good combination by the way.

This line opened at 11.5 or 12 depending on where you look, but in all books has been trending towards the Under over time. I think that is the right way to lean as well, as these pitchers should find some middle-of-the-road success against their opposing lineups. I know it is Colorado, but 12 runs is just a bit too high here, especially with Tampa Bay’s struggling offense. Take Under 12 runs -124 at Pinnacle as one of your Tuesday MLB Picks.

 

Free MLB Picks: Under 12 -124
Best Line Offered: at Pinnacle ​

2016 YTD MLB: 34-20-3, +13.32 Units

[/]{"component":"oddswidget", "eventId":2992173, "sportsbooksIds":[238,999996,93,43,1537], "LineTypeId":3, "PeriodTypeId":1 }[/]