The "streak" baseball betting theory calls for plays on teams with winning streaks of three or more games, and fades against teams with losing streaks of three or more. Tonight's Royals-Indians game in Cleveland provides bettors with a double streak play opportunity.
Royals-Indians Tuesday Betting Odds
As of mid-Tuesday morning the best line we could find on Cleveland with Trevor Bauer was the -115 offered at Pinnacle, while KC with Chris Young were getting +108 at BetOnline. And every book on our MLB odds board listed a total on tonight's game of 7.5 runs, with most of the grease sliding toward the OVER.
Kansas City grabbed Game 1 of this series Monday night 9-4, scoring three runs in the first inning, one in the second and three more in the fifth to put it away. The Royals now lead the season with Cleveland six games to four, with the OVERS going 7-2-1.
So KC has won three games in a row, while the Tribe has lost five straight, setting tonight's game up for a double streak play.
At 60-38 Kansas City owns the best record in the American League, and an eight-game lead over second-place Minnesota in the AL Central.
At 45-53 Cleveland trails the Royals by 15 games in the AL Central, and sits seven games back of the Twins in the race for the second American League wild-card spot.
This pitching match-up is a rematch of a game of June 4, a 6-2 Indians victory.
Bauer (8-7, 4.29), by our strict standards, is 11-for-19 on quality starts this season, but 0 for his last two. Last Thursday he gave up six runs in six innings against the White Sox, coughing up three home runs, and just before that he gave up five runs in four innings against Cincinnati, giving up two more homers. In fact, Bauer has been touched for 10 dingers over his last six starts. On the season Bauer has allowed 98 hits, including 17 long balls, through 115 innings, walked 47 and struck out 116.
Cleveland is 9-10 in Bauer's starts, while the totals have skewed UNDER by a 12-6 margin.
Over five career starts against Kansas City, including two this season, Bauer has allowed 12 runs and 33 hits through 28 innings; the Indians won three of those games.
Young (8-6, 3.32) is just five-for-15 on quality starts, and hasn't been too hot as of late. Last Thursday he gave up four runs in three innings against St. Louis, and over his last four starts he's allowed 13 runs through 20 innings, giving up seven gopher balls over that span. On the season Young has allowed just 73 hits through 95 innings, but 14 of those hits have left the yard, and his K/BB ratio sits at a mediocre 61/29.
The Royals are 9-6 in Young's starts, with the totals leaning UNDER 8-4.
Since the beginning of last season, when he was with Seattle, Young has started three times against Cleveland, giving up 11 runs and 19 hits through 15 1/3 innings; his teams managed to win two of those games.
Tuesday's Batting Splits
Kansas City ranks fourth in the Majors at the moment against right-handed pitching with a .273 team batting average, and seventh with a .324 team on-base percentage.
Cleveland, meanwhile, ranks 25th against righties with a .242 average and 19th with a .313 team OBP.
Ballpark Totals Factor
The OVERS are 27-23 in games played at Progressive Field this season, which are averaging 8.9 runs per.
Royals-Indians Tuesday Free Picks
We don't always go along with the streak betting theory, but KC is playing for big stakes, while Cleveland just looks dead. We'll go with the Royals tonight. Also, these two starters are a combined 20-10 on the UNDERS this season, and we'll go along with that, too.
MLB Picks: KC +108 at BetOnline and UNDER 7.5 runs (+100) at Just Bet