Double Profit Opportunity Found in Tonight's Braves-Orioles Series Finale

Darin Zank

Wednesday, July 29, 2015 1:05 PM UTC

Wednesday, Jul. 29, 2015 1:05 PM UTC

Orioles are trying to play its way into playoff contention, & can help itself by completing a sweep of Atlanta tonight. They are favored by a big number, but there are other ways of betting this game.

Braves-Orioles Wednesday Odds
As of this writing the best line we could find on Baltimore with Chris Tillman was the -192 offered at BetOnline, while Atlanta with Michael Foltynewicz was getting +184 at 5Dimes. Meanwhile, much of the MLB betting market opened the total on this game at eight runs, then bumped that to 8.5 in the early action.


The Situation
Baltimore has taken the first two games of this series, by scores of 2-1 (in 11 innings) and 7-3. So the Orioles have won four games in a row, while the Braves have lost five of their last six.

At 50-49 Baltimore trails the first-place Yankees by seven games in the AL East, but sits just two games behind the Minnesota Twins in the battle for the second American League wild-card spot.

At 46-54 Atlanta trails first-place Washington by seven games in the NL East, and San Francisco by nine games for the second National League wild-card berth.


Wednesday's Starting Pitchers
Tillman (7-7, 4.71) is only eight-for-19 on quality starts this season, but working on a run of three in a row. Last Friday he held Tampa to one run and two hits through seven innings, and over his last three starts he's held foes to just three runs through 21 innings. On the season Tillman has allowed 105 hits through 105 innings, although his strikeouts/walks ratio sits at a mediocre 78/42.

Baltimore is 10-9 in Tillman's starts, with the totals going 9-10.

Foltynewicz (3-2, 5.27), Folty from here on out, will be making his first start in six weeks, after being demoted to the bullpen, then to the Minors. He's three-for-nine on quality starts for the Braves this season, to go along with three appearances in relief. Folty last appeared in a ML game back on July 11, when he threw one pitch against Colorado, and gave up the game-winning base hit in the bottom of the ninth. He really earned his demotion by giving up 14 earned runs through his last three starts back in June. On the season Folty has allowed 70 hits through 55 innings, although his K/BB ratio isn't too bad, at 52/18.

The Braves are 4-5 in Folty's starts, with the totals going 5-3.

Neither starting pitcher has started against tonight's opponents before.


Wednesday's Batting Splits
Atlanta ranks 13th in the Bigs this season against right-handed pitching with a .257 team batting average, and 13th with a .317 team on-base percentage.

Baltimore ranks 18th against righties with a .252 average and 20th with a .310 team OBP.


Ballpark Totals Factor
The UNDERS are 27-21 in games played at Camden Yards this season, which are averaging 8.8 runs per.


Braves-O's Wednesday Free Picks
We backed Atlanta in the first two games of this series, mainly because that's where we thought the value on the betting line resided. But perhaps it's time to bail on that train of thought. Tillman looks good as of late, and Folty probably shouldn't be trusted. So we'll back Baltimore today. And in searching for a little better price we'll take a chance with the O's on the run line. Also, we could see this game getting to 6-3 or 7-2, so we're thinking OVER.


MLB Picks: Baltimore +120 on the run line at Bovada and OVER 8.5 runs (+105) at 5Dimes

comment here