Double Play: Yankees Spur Run Line Wager While Reds-Dodgers Go Over

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Mark Lathrop

Saturday, May 12, 2018 2:29 PM UTC

Saturday, May. 12, 2018 2:29 PM UTC

Mark Lathrop has had a very good read on the MLB betting landscape so far in 2018. Here he picks out two situations with maximum value for his Saturday MLB selections.

2018 MLB Record: 60-38-4, +21.49, 21.07% ROI (4 Pending)

Cincinnati Reds (17-21 O/U) vs Los Angeles Dodgers (19-17 O/U)

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Free MLB Pick: Over 8 RunsBest Line Offered: at 5Dimes

The Cincinnati Reds continue their road series against the Dodgers on Saturday evening and draw Ross Stripling getting his last start before heading back to the bullpen. Stripling is much better as a reliever, as his 0.59 ERA versus 4.50 ERA as a starter indicates. He’s allowed batters to hit .353 against him as a starter and his hard-hit rates jumped from 27.5% to 37% in that limited sample size. What I’m also seeing for Stripling is that his fly ball rates have skyrocketed almost 10% since joining the Dodgers rotation. His longest start has been 4 innings, which will put the Dodgers bullpen into play. They have a collective 4.31 FIP and are ranked 28th in the MLB. Not a good setup for the Dodgers here.

Cincinnati will counter with Homer Bailey, who is coming off of a his 4th start in a row of allowing multiple home runs. He’s carrying a 6.28 FIP and 17.7% HR/FB rate into this game and has a negative WAR through 43.1 innings pitched. His lifetime splits are actually not bad against some of the components of this Dodgers lineup, but left-handers are giving him fits this year and LA will be able to stack the lineup from that side. I’m shocked I can get the total of 8 in this game, and will be jumping on Over 8 -120 before the line moves as one of my Saturday MLB Picks.

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Let's get the weekend started. pic.twitter.com/X4Tiklo6mZ

— New York Yankees (@Yankees) May 11, 2018
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Oakland Athletics (18-19 SU) vs New York Yankees (26-11 SU)

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Free MLB Pick: New York Yankees -1.5 RLBest Line Offered: at 5Dimes

The Yankees may have stumbled on another great young arm in Domingo German, as explained in this great article by Travis Sawchik over at Fangraphs. His fastball has a ton of movement, and what I like to see is that his walk rates are coming down over last year’s limited innings. He’s due for a bit of negative regression when looking at his 2.66 ERA versus his 3.27 xFIP, but even if the luck is taken out of his numbers they are fantastic. He’ll be limited in pitches again on Saturday, as he was in his last start when he was pulled after pitching 6 innings of no-hit ball against the Indians. After his 5 or 6 innings he’ll pass the ball over to a Yankees bullpen ranked 1st in the MLB with a combined 2.90 FIP. German has given up one hit to the Athletics in 8 career at bats.

Andrew Triggs gets the start for Oakland against a Yankee team that hits very good during the daytime and very good at home. On the year the Yankees put up 6.5 runs per game at home, 6.3 runs per game during the day, and 6.2 runs per game against right handed starters. I’m not a big fan of Triggs, and believe his early season numbers have been inflated by getting starts against Baltimore and Texas – especially his strikeout rates. He’ll face a Yankees lineup that he has only struck out one batter in, Brett Gardner, over 27 at bats. He’s going to get hit around on Saturday in a situation where he will need to be very good to stay competitive. I’ll take this chance to fade him and take the Yankees on the run line at plus odds as another Saturday MLB Pick.

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