Double Play: When Blue Jays Win, They Usually Win Big

Thursday, May 17, 2018 1:12 PM UTC

Thursday, May. 17, 2018 1:12 PM UTC

MLB handicapper Mark Lathrop looks to add to his bankroll today by grabbing a plus-odds line with a strong trend that has to be seen to be believed.

2018 MLB Record: 74-50-7, +21.25u, 16.22% ROI
*Note: Record includes official Twitter selections (@mlathrop3)

MLB Thursday: Double PlayOakland Athletics (21-22 SU) vs. Toronto Blue Jays (22-21 SU)Free MLB Pick: Blue Jays -1.5 +170Best Line Offered: 5Dimes

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First a quick note on the line I’m choosing here, as I was all well and content to take the Blue Jays on the moneyline in this game. However, upon further investigation I have found that when the Blue Jays win they have covered the run line at an 18-4 clip. Since I am taking Toronto I will stick with the trend that they will cover the run line on the MLB odds board to capture some positive odds should we win this pick.

The Blue Jays draw Andrew Triggs of the Athletics on tonight as Oakland travels to Toronto after a late-night game with Boston on Wednesday. Triggs is coming off a game in New York in which he got absolutely shelled, and I think that trend continues here. What I am picking up is that Triggs’ hard-hit ball percentages are climbing and currently sit at 40% on the season. In addition, his balls hit in the air are climbing – leading to a 17.1% HR/FB rate. With an FIP of 4.79 and BB/9 rate of 3.69 on the season I have suspicions that the often-injured Triggs has an injury he is trying to hide.

The Blue Jays counter with Aaron Sanchez, who appears to be healthy again for once. He also has an FIP above average at 4.90, but his increasing ground ball rates show a pitcher that will be very hard to get into a blowup start. He’s faced some very good lineup in the AL East and has given up just 4 home runs on the year over 8 starts and 46.1 innings pitched. His newly found change-up should play well against Oakland, which doesn’t handle a good one very well (except for Matt Olson). I’ll take the Blue Jays to build on their 12-1 throttling of the Mets on Wednesday with a wager on the run line at plus odds as one of my Thursday MLB picks.

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It rained all day, but our bats were on 🔥🔥🔥 in New York!


— Toronto Blue Jays (@BlueJays) May 17, 2018

Detroit Tigers (19-21 O/U) vs. Seattle Mariners (25-16 O/U)Free MLB Pick: Under 8.5 Runs -120Best Line Offered: 5Dimes

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In a rematch of last week’s game that ended 4-3 in Detroit, lefties Marco Gonzales of Seattle and Matt Boyd of Detroit will meet as Safeco Field tonight. I was on the "under" of 9 in that game and the market has adjusted a bit by opening the line at 8.5, but I don’t think it has adjusted it enough so I am going to keep with the trend. Both teams hit lefties well overall, but both of these pitchers have established that they don’t allow hard-hit contact much. This played out last week for Gonzales even as he gave up 10 hits with a .429 BABIP in the game. His hard-hit rate stayed relatively steady at 34.5%, a mark actually better than his 39.7% season average. Gonzalez pitched 5 innings of one-run ball before getting bit with two outs in the sixth inning.

Boyd won the game, of course, and pitched well into the seventh. He gave up only 3 hits in the game but did walk three batters as well. He’ll see a different lineup tonight with Robinson Cano suspended and Nelson Cruz out with a foot injury. The fact remains that his batted ball profiles held up in the matchup with Seattle. I’m taking this data point more seriously than either team’s batting average over lefties on the season. I’ll re-up here and take "under" 8.5 runs as another Thursday MLB pick.

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