Double Play: Weather a Factor in Both of These Value Picks

Mark Lathrop

Thursday, May 3, 2018 1:34 PM UTC

Thursday, May. 3, 2018 1:34 PM UTC

The weather is a risk to one of the selections today, but handicapper Mark Lathrop can't help but take a shot with a huge underdog as one of his MLB picks.

2018 MLB Record: 40-29-4, +10.37 (1 Pending)

MLB Thursday: Double PlayAtlanta Braves (13-12 O/U) vs. New York Mets (14-12 O/U)Free MLB Pick: 'Over' 9 RunsBest Line Offered: 5Dimes

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The weather will be a factor in New York this afternoon, as the wind should be blowing out to left between 10 and 15 mph at game time with 86F temperatures. Jason Vargas will be making his second start for the Mets this year after getting absolutely crushed in his first start to the tune of nine runs over just 3.2 innings pitched against the lowly Padres. He’ll have a tougher offense to face here, as the Braves are crushing lefty starters this year and have put up a .316 BAA and 6.3 runs average over three games and 114 at bats. Vargas, usually a ground ball leaning pitcher, had batters only hit to a 26% ground ball rate in his first start.

Julio Teheran gets his 7th start of the year for the Braves and looks for just his 2nd winning decision. He’s put up a 5.53 FIP over 30 innings pitched and has a walk rate that has ballooned on him at 4.80 BB/9. Not fitting in with the weather report is his batted ball numbers, which have both his fly ball and hard hit rates sitting at career highs. With the total on the MLB odds board sitting at just 9 runs, and some dingers in the forecast with the weather, I will take "over" 9 runs as one of my MLB picks.

Toronto Blue Jays (17-12 SU) vs. Cleveland Indians (15-13 SU)Free MLB Pick: Blue Jays ML +187Best Line Offered: 5Dimes

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The Cleveland Indians start a short two-game series against the Toronto Blue Jays, and I’m just hoping this game can dodge the weather because we have a great chance at moneyline value here. The Indians have been struggling mightily against left-handed starters this year with a .198 BAA over 293 at-bats and a 3.8 runs per-game average. They’ll draw Jaime Garcia, who has struggled on the season with a 6.05 FIP. Dingers and walks have been a problem for Garcia, but his luck statistics are also quite high leading to a 4.28 xFIP.

The Blue Jays have beat up on right-handed starters with a 5.7 runs per-game average. That stat may be moot with Carlos Carrasco on the mound though; he has a 3.82 FIP on the season. He apparently tweaked something in his last start out, which could shorten his outing today. That would expose the Blue Jays to the Indians' bullpen, which has a 6.16 ERA at home this year. That's where the value lies on the MLB odds board. I will take the Blue Jays here as a huge dog to pull the late upset as another of my Thursday MLB picks.

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Next stop, Cleveland. Looks like rain is in the forecast.

Makes sense, @BringerOfRain20 is on his way.

— Toronto Blue Jays (@BlueJays) May 2, 2018

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