Double Play: Two Public Favorites to Back on Sunday

Sunday, May 13, 2018 1:57 PM UTC

Sunday, May. 13, 2018 1:57 PM UTC

Mark Lathrop has been treading water since hitting his high water mark on the season earlier in the week. He looks to some square action that appears safe to hit with the masses as his two Sunday MLB picks.

2018 MLB Record: 63-42-4, +20-07u, 18.25% ROI (1 Pending)

Seattle Mariners (21-15 SU) vs Detroit Tigers (15-21 SU)

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Free MLB Pick: Seattle Mariners -1.5 -115Best Line Offered: at 5Dimes

The squarest of Sundays starts with the Seattle Mariners facing the Detroit Tigers with James Paxton on the mound. Fresh off of the Mariners’ 6th no-hitter in history, Paxton will face a Tigers lineup that is right-handed heavy that will not match up with The Big Maple well at all. Paxton allows just a .146 batting average against righties this season with a 57/14 K/BB rate. That will play right into his 12.65 K/9 rate overall on the season and 1.13 WHIP. Superlatives aside, Paxton should have no trouble putting together his 3rd straight quality outing here and one of the only Tigers batters that gives him trouble – Miguel Cabrera – is currently on the DL.

Blain Hardy will get the spot start for the Tigers here and his first on the year. The 31-year old journeyman reliever will face a Seattle team that hits .272 against lefties and when his pitch limit is up will pass the ball to a Tigers bullpen with a 4.91 ERA at home. Hardy has allowed right-handers to hit .290 against him in his career, so I wouldn’t be surprised if one of the important lefties of the Mariners gets the day off such as Dee Gordon or Ben Gamel. A spot starter against Paxton is too much to pass up though, so I will take the Mariners on the run line here as one of my Sunday MLB picks.

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W. 25-16. #NeverSettle

— Houston Astros (@astros) May 13, 2018

Texas Rangers (16-24 SU) vs Houston Astros (24-16 SU)

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Free MLB Pick: Houston Astros -1.5 RL

Best Line Offered: at 5Dimes

More square plays continue as Matt Moore of the Rangers faces Dallas Keuchel of the Houston Astros. Moore has been terrible over his last 3 starts, posting an 11.04 ERA and 2.24 WHIP. He’ll face a Houston team that is just average against left-handed starters but lit up Moore in Texas earlier this season. Houston is also a great day batting team where they have posted a 10-4 SU record and average 5.7 runs per game. Moore has a 5.24 FIP and his K/9 rate has dipped this season over last from 7.64 to 5.91. His BAA also spells trouble as he allows a .417 average against lefties and a .326 average against righties on the season. It’s a very bad spot for Moore to face this Houston lineup, or any MLB lineup for that matter.

Dallas Keuchel has a 4.57 FIP this season, but there are signs that will regress positively as his xFIP is sitting at 3.84. One thing I still like about Keuchel’s numbers are his hard-hit rates, which are at just 28.1% this season. Pair that with a below average line drive rate of 17.6% and you have a pitcher that could twirl a gem at any time. In fact, that is what happened in Keuchel’s last start as he pitched 8 innings of one run ball against the Oakland Athletics on the road. I’m looking for Keuchel to keep his May improvement going here (.196 BAA in the month) and will take Houston on the run line -126 as another Sunday MLB Pick.

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