Double Play: Two Opportunities With Lefties on Wednesday

royals

Mark Lathrop

Wednesday, May 2, 2018 12:50 PM UTC

Wednesday, May. 2, 2018 12:50 PM UTC

Two run-line wagers are in store for Mark Lathrop as he makes his Wednesday MLB picks. Read up as he looks at one dog and one favorite to cash tickets on your betting card.

2018 MLB Record: 38-27-4, +10.59 (1 Pending)

MLB Wednesday: Double PlayKansas City Royals (7-21 SU) vs. Boston Red Sox (21-7 SU)Free MLB Pick: Royals +1.5 -115Best Line Offered: 5Dimes

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Looking at the records of these teams it is actually quite surprising that we are not getting the Royals at plus-money on the run line. The reason would be the Red Sox’s hitting against lefties on the season, as they average just a .221 average against southpaws with 3.2 runs per game. They are 2-3 against lefties straight up and have cashed the "under" at a 1-4 clip. They’ll face Danny Duffy this afternoon for the first time since 2016. As a result, many of the batters on the Red Sox roster don’t have much experience against him. A few batters struggle mightily, though. J.D. Martinez has a .136 BAA against Duffy in 24 plate appearances. No Red Sox batter has an OBP more than .400 against left-handers this year.

Drew Pomeranz gets the start for the Red Sox, and he may find more resistance against this Royals team than we expect. Three Royals batters are crushing lefties this year in Whit Merrifield, Jorge Soler, and Alcides Escobar. Pomeranz has a good career ERA against the Royals but has never beat them. I’ll look for the Royals to be surprisingly competitive in this spot and take them on the run line as one of my Wednesday MLB picks.

Oakland Athletics (14-14 SU) vs. Seattle Mariners (16-11 SU)Free MLB Pick: Mariners -1.5 + 120Best Line Offered: 5Dimes

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The Mariners hit lefties very well and have eight players on their roster that hit better than .286 against southpaws this year, albeit in limited action. They should face Brett Anderson tonight in Seattle after dominating in AAA to start the season. His last big-league numbers weren’t great, though, as the oft-injured Anderson struggled with command in 2017 over 55.1 innings pitched. Anderson has not faced the Mariners since 2015, so his 1.83 career ERA against the team is a completely worthless stat.

The Athletics draw the Big Maple, James Paxton, in this game in hopes of extending their 5-game win streak against left-handed starters. Paxton is 5-1 against Oakland – a stat that does matter with 3 starts coming last year – and carries a 3.72 ERA and 1.15 WHIP against the A’s. His red flag has been walks this year, with a 4.26 BB/9 rate that is well above his 2.80 career average. This could be the signs of an injury for Paxton, but his ridiculous strikeout rate of 12.51 K/9 does not correspond with the theory, nor does his batted ball profiles or velocity. Paxton is getting his best whiff rates in his career as well at 12.9%. I’ll take the ace at home against Anderson coming off of the DL and grab the Mariners on the run line to get plus odds as another Wednesday MLB pick.

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.@M_Hanny17's start to the season has been straight 🔥🔥🔥. #TrueToTheBlue pic.twitter.com/59C59lVnOu

— Mariners (@Mariners) May 2, 2018
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