Double Play: Trends Worth Following for Yankees and Giants

Thursday, April 12, 2018 12:55 PM UTC

Thursday, Apr. 12, 2018 12:55 PM UTC

After a few days of split decisions in Mark Lathrop's MLB Picks of the Day, here are two selections he is counting on to put him over the hump in Thursday MLB action.

2018 MLB Record: 15-7-1, +7.05u

MLB: Thursday's Double PlaySan Francisco Giants (5-6 SU) vs. San Diego Padres (4-9 SU)Free MLB Pick: Giants -1.5 RL, +130Best Line Offered: 5Dimes

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The Padres come home to Petco after a very eventful midweek series in Colorado where they won the series but lost the battle in the third game. In a 6-4 loss to the Rockies a brawl broke out after a pitch sailed behind Rockies batter Nolan Arenado and he charged pitcher Luis Perdomo. No significant blows were landed, except for the Padres losing where it counted.

Bryan Mitchell takes the mound in this game for the Padres and hopes to improve in many aspects from his first two starts of the season. Mitchell has pitched 10.2 innings over two starts and has nine walks versus just one strikeout. There are no ratios or metrics for me to say that this is a good thing and his 6.56 FIP agrees with my conclusion.

Chris Stratton gets the start for the Giants and, unlike Mitchell, his metrics project that he could improve on his first two starts. His FIP sits at just 3.10 and his ground ball rate is nearly half of his career average at 24.1 percent. That subdued ground ball rate is even less of an issue given that this game is at San Diego. Stratton will face a team other than the Dodgers for the first time this year, and the Padres' lineup is nothing compared to the Dodgers. I like how this game is lining up for the Giants to be dominant, and on the MLB odds board I will take San Francisco plus odds on the run line as one of my Thursday MLB Picks of the Day.

New York Yankees (8-4 O/U) vs. Boston Red Sox (6-5 O/U)Free MLB Pick: 'Over' 9 RunsBest Line Offered: 5Dimes

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The theme of baseball brawls continues as we discuss the series between the Yankees and Red Sox, who got into a bit of a tussle in Game 2 of the series which the Yankees won 10-7. It was the eighth "over" cashing out of the last nine games for the Yankees, and the fourth consecutive "over" cashing for the Red Sox.

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#StartSpreadingTheNews, this series is even.

— New York Yankees (@Yankees) April 12, 2018

Trying to stop the offensive onslaught for the Red Sox is Rick Porcello, who was very good over his first two starts of the season while putting up a 2.84 ERA and 0.71 BB/9 rate. His BAA last year against righties of .285 and lefties of .283 tells me he can be touched up if the situation is right, and he has a track record against the lefties in the New York lineup that isn’t stellar.

Starting for the Yankees is Sonny Gray, who also was good over his first two starts. He has more than a few batters in the current Boston lineup that can give him trouble, though, and he has already struggled a bit with right-handed batters on the year with a .296 BAA in limited action. At the end of the day, though, this pick is based on the momentum and trend of the "overs" for these teams, so I will back "over" 9 runs in the final game of this series as another of my MLB picks.

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