Double Play: Trends to Continue for Two Totals Plays on Saturday

Seattle mariners

Mark Lathrop

Saturday, April 21, 2018 2:17 PM UTC

Saturday, Apr. 21, 2018 2:17 PM UTC

On a nifty 7-3 run, Mark Lathrop looks to continue his success by riding some strong trends available to back two totals plays on Saturday. Read on as he analyzes the games, and more, and makes his top MLB Picks.

2018 MLB Record: 25-14-2, +10.50u

Seattle Mariners (11-6 O/U) vs Texas Rangers (9-10 O/U)

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Free MLB Pick: Under 9 Runs Best Line Offered: at 5Dimes

Bartolo Colon may be practicing wizardry on the side, folks, as he somehow found a way to be perfect through seven innings against a very formidable Houston Astros lineup last weekend. It may be wizadry, or it just be someone that is pitching just for the love of it at this point, with nothing to lose. After seeing Colon’s nonchalant attitude during his perfect game going against Houston, I’d like to think it is the latter. What we are left with are some luck numbers that are off the charts in a BABIP of .217 to start the season, but a pitcher that is pounding the zone and not walking anyone either with a 0.96 BB/9 rate. Colon is getting ground balls at a great rate as well this year, which would make the luck a little more sustainable than if he was counting on fly balls staying in the yard.

The Mariners will send out the Big Maple to face Colon in this game, who is also exceptionally hot but also expected to be. Like Colon, Paxton’s last start was a gem pitched against the formidable Houston Astros lineup, and it was the third start in a row where Paxton gave up 2 earned runs or less. Paxton’s line drive rate has dropped this season aver last, to the lowest of his career at 16.4%. That statistic is a great one for predicting runs crossing the plate, so I’m expecting positive regression for Paxton’s current 4.33 FIP. Colon may give up a few runs, but his strike zone efficiency along with Paxton’s dominance should keep this game under 9 runs as one of my Saturday MLB Picks.

Cincinnati Reds (7-11 O/U) vs St. Louis Cardinals (9-9 O/U)

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Free MLB Pick: Over 8 RunsBest Line Offered: at 5Dimes

I opened a bottle of my 2017 Sangiovese Rose’ today in an effort to write some tasting notes for its impending release the first weekend in May. It was wonderful, with scents of nectarines and white peach, and a finish of red ruby grapefruit and jasmine green tea. Being a Rose’, it was a quick journey from grape to glass, but it wasn’t without peril. You see, Sangiovese is a light skinned grape with a heavy juice to skin and seed content. A half-ton bin of Petit Verdot will way 900 pounds, while a half-ton bin of Sangiovese will weight 1,600 pounds. When I picked up my 3 tons under contract I left the vineyard with about 9,000 pounds behind my 1992 GMC pickup truck. The momentum behind me as I carried down the interstate was akin to a North Korean missile test. Fast, heavy, and dumb. On many occasions as I tried to slow down my brakes imitated the cheap smoke bombs I used to have as a kid on the 4th of July.

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Good night from Busch. #STLCards pic.twitter.com/8jccztjVUF

— St. Louis Cardinals (@Cardinals) April 21, 2018
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As I was making my tasting notes for the Rose’ and remembering the scary drive back to the winery, I checked my phone and saw that the Reds lost to the Cardinals for the 5th time in a row this season. I decided right then and there I was going to ride the Cardinals again on Saturday. A quick check of the Reds batting splits against the expected starter Carlos Martinez shows they should score a few runs too, so I’ll take Over 8 runs in this game as one of my Saturday MLB Picks.

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