Double Play: Strong Home-Field Advantage Leads to Value Call in Pittsburgh

twins pirates

Mark Lathrop

Wednesday, April 4, 2018 12:19 PM GMT

Wednesday, Apr. 4, 2018 12:19 PM GMT

Mark Lathrop looks to add to his hot 5-1-1 start with two picks on Wednesday games with pitchers already getting their second time through the rotation.

2018 MLB Record: 5-1-1 (+3.48u)

Texas Rangers (2-3 O/U) @ Oakland Athletics (3-2 O/U)Free MLB Pick: Under 8.5 Runs Best Line Offered: 5Dimes

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The Athletics play No. 7 of their 8 game homestand Wednesday night, and Sean Manaea gets his second start of the season. Manaea is coming off of a very proficient start where he put up 7.2 innings pitched and 7/0 K/BB rate against the Los Angeles Angels. He only gave up one earned run in that start but was saddled with a loss anyway. He’ll face a Texas team that has hit him around a bit, but home runs haven’t been an issue and his career WHIP against the Rangers sits at 1.205. Manaea does keep the ball on the ground most of the time.

Starting for the Rangers is Doug Fister, who has a 3.30 career ERA against Oakland in a stat that doesn’t matter much. What does matter, however, is that Fister only has one player on Oakland’s current roster who gives him trouble: Jed Lowrie (8-for-27, four doubles). Fister will need to pitch well to win with the Texas offense starting off weakly. I’ll actually back the weak offense here, and take the Under 8.5 runs available at 5Dimes as one of my MLB Picks.

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The Oakland A's somehow managed to only draw 7,416 people for last nights game against the Texas Rangershttps://t.co/pudVPDtzIm pic.twitter.com/wOv2TVDKoZ

— Barstool Sports (@barstoolsports) April 3, 2018
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Minnesota Twins (2-2 SU) @ Pittsburgh Pirates (4-0 SU)Free MLB Pick: Pittsburgh ML -108Best Line Offered: BetOnline

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The Pirates turn to Ivan Nova to keep their hot start rolling in 2018, as they are 4-0 and making my futures model showing them as a surprise team very prescient. With some practical off days since Nova started the season opener for Pittsburgh, he will get the ball for their 5th game as well. That opening game was very pedestrian too before getting crazy in extra innings, with Nova putting up 5 innings of two-run ball in a no-decision. Nova has a very strong home/away split, and in 2017 put up a 2.80 ERA at home vs. a 5.02 ERA on the road. This game happens to be in Pittsburgh and being that it is an interleague game, hardly any of the Twins batters have seen Nova before.

Jake Odorizzi also gets his second start of the season for his new club the Twins. Thus, Odorizzi, acquired in trade from the Rays, does have the element of surprise here after not facing the Pirates lineup. However, his style of play will not match the conditions that will be prevalent in the ballpark Wednesday. Odorizzi is a fl- ball pitcher and put up a 47.3% fly-ball rate in 2017 with the Rays. Turns out the wind will be blowing out hard on Wednesday to add a lot of extra carry to those fly balls hit by the Pirates. Nova’s fly-ball rate in 2017 was 31% in comparison. With even odds on the home team, a good home team pitcher, and a weather advantage I will gladly take the Pirates on the moneyline at 5Dimes as one of my MLB Picks of the Day.

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