Double Play: Straight Up Edge for Mariners & 'Under' Trends for Later Play

Mark Lathrop

Wednesday, June 13, 2018 12:28 PM UTC

Wednesday, Jun. 13, 2018 12:28 PM UTC

MLB handicapper, Mark Lathrop, gets his picks in early for Wednesday before his Tuesday's picks are complete. Read on as he shows why he jumped on the early lines available for Wednesday MLB action.

2018 MLB Record: 134-106-13, +29.85 (6 Pending)

*Note: Record includes official Twitter selections (@mlathrop3)

Los Angeles Angels (37-30 SU) vs Seattle Mariners (42-24 SU)

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Free MLB Pick: Seattle Mariners ML -105Best Line Offered: at 5Dimes

In a game that we can all watch in our offices on Facebook Live, the Seattle Mariners host the Los Angeles Angels in the final game of their 3-game series on Wednesday afternoon. Marco Gonzales brings his 7-3 record to the table and he has been nails over the last month and 5 starts, picking up 4 winning decisions and getting a no decision after pitching 5.2 innings of shutout ball on May 17th in Detroit. What I pay attention to, and you should as well, is that Gonzales continues to allow very weak contact to opposing batters. In all 5 of his last starts he’s either had hard hit rates under 23.5% or soft hit rates over 30.4%. That is elite level stuff, and he allowed just a 21.1% hard hit rate to the Angels earlier this year. Gonzales has a 3.33 FIP on the season.

The Angels will counter with Garrett Richards, who has had an issue with walks this season as his BB/9 rate has ballooned to 4.34 from a career average of 3.26. He’s struggled with right-handers this year, and you wouldn’t know it by just looking at his .224 BAA against that split. If you go one level deeper you’ll see he’s allowing a 42% hard hit rate against right-handers. That will start regressing that batting average up in a hurry. With the Angels 6-10 against left handed starters as well I will take the Mariners on the moneyline at about even money as one of my Wednesday MLB picks.

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#MNTwins take a 5-2 lead in the 7th with Ehire Adrianza's first career grand slam! pic.twitter.com/5ka1k9Dvt8

— Minnesota Twins (@Twins) June 13, 2018
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Minnesota Twins (28-32 O/U) vs Detroit Tigers (28-37 SU)

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Free MLB Pick: Under 8.5 RunsBest Line Offered: at JustBet

As I write this a Twin batter just hit a grand slam to put my Under call in this series on Tuesday’s game in danger. The line is a bit lower here, but we have an even better pitching matchup to back it up with a hot Jose Berrios of the Twins going up against Matt Boyd of the Tigers. Jose Berrios is carrying a 0.92 WHIP coming into this game and has an 84/14 K/BB rate on the season. I talk about batted ball rates a lot, but sometimes the old school statistics are good enough. Berrios carries a 3.29 FIP coming into this game and will face a Tigers squad averaging just 3.7 runs per game off of right handed starters.

Matt Boyd has cashed Unders at an 8-4 clip and has a 2.95 ERA and 1.14 WHIP over his last three starts. He’s not overpowering but does keep the ball in the yard which limits his chances of blowup starts with a 6.4% HR/FB rate. Minnesota also struggles against southpaws putting up just 3.1 runs per game with a .222 batting average against. Even with a grand slam ruining last night’s play, I will take Under 8.5 runs here as another Wednesday MLB pick.

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