Double Play: Snakes' Greinke Dominance at Home to Continue

Mark Lathrop

Thursday, April 19, 2018 11:43 AM UTC

Thursday, Apr. 19, 2018 11:43 AM UTC

Our handicapper, Mark Lathrop, is running a cool 62.5% with his published picks coming into his selections Thursday. Read on to find out why these are his top two MLB Picks of the Day.
 

2018 MLB Record: 20-12-2, +7.10u (2 Pending)

Miami Marlins (10-7 O/U) @ Milwaukee Brewers (8-10 O/U)Free MLB Pick: Over 8.5 Best Line Offered: 5Dimes

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The Miami Marlins are coming off of one of the biggest moneyline upsets in recent memory, beating the New York Yankees on Tuesday as a +300 or better underdog. They’ll continue their 6-game road trip indoors in Milwaukee on Thursday against a pitcher they’ve had success against in the past. Of course, since Miami lost most of their good players over the offseason, you really need to dial in to the expected lineup they can produce on any given night. Turns out that Justin Bour, Cameron Maybin and J.T. Realmuto all give Milwaukee starter Chase Anderson fits. Anderson is sporting a very lucky 2.82 ERA right now against a pedestrian 5.11 FIP. His luck numbers are off the charts at a .193 BABIP, so I’m expecting some negative regression from him here.

It won’t take much negative regression from Anderson to get this game 'over' the listed total it appears, as Miami starter Dillon Peters has been awful even after picking up two winning decisions. Peters has a 6.05 FIP with a 4.91 K/9 and 3.68 BB/9 rate on the season over his first 3 starts. He gave up 9 hits in a start against the Brewers last fall, with all of those batters available to be in the lineup Thursday night. Peters is helped considerably by his home field, as indicated by his 4.64/6.30 ERA home/away split from 2017. Since the game is in Milwaukee I’ll be backing Over 8.5 runs here as one of my Thursday MLB Picks.

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4/17/2018: Eric Thames hits 2-run homer as Brewers beat Reds 2-0.

4/18/2018: Eric Thames hits 2-run homer as Brewers beat Reds 2-0.

Time is a flat circle. pic.twitter.com/2apizM15Z5

— MLB (@MLB) April 18, 2018
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San Francisco Giants (6-10 SU) @ Arizona Diamondbacks (12-4 SU)Free MLB Pick: Diamondbacks -1.5Best Line Offered: BetPhoenix

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Zack Greinke is on the mound for the Diamondbacks, and he not only dominates the Giants but is dominant at home. Being in the division, Greinke has faced this Giants lineup multiple times, and there is not one batter that has an OBP over .391 against him. He owns a 64K/21BB rate against all available batters on the Giants roster right now. Add that to his 3.17 FIP, .207 BAA, and 0.96 WHIP at home last year in the pre-humidor Chase Field, and we have the recipe for a stellar outing by Greinke.

Starting for the Giants is Ty Blach, who faced Greinke last year in Arizona in August and lost while giving up 4 earned runs over 5 innings pitched. Blach surprised everyone by beating the Dodgers on Opening Day, yet his command has been lacking ever since. He’s got a 3.98 BB/9 rate on the year, much higher than 2017 in limited action, .300 BAA, and 1.62 WHIP. His line drive rate is sitting at 26.1% and his whiff rate is just 4.9% on the year. This sets up that Blach will have to be nearly perfect to compete with Greinke, which is unlikely to happen. Of course, that is why the Diamondbacks are a -170 moneyline favorite. I’ll actually take the run line here to get the juice down and make the Diamondbacks -1.5 as another top MLB Pick.

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