Double Play: Overmatched Teams a Tuesday Trend

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Mark Lathrop

Tuesday, May 1, 2018 12:10 PM UTC

Tuesday, May. 1, 2018 12:10 PM UTC

The month of April was a profitable one for our handicapper, Mark Lathrop. He looks to start the month of May strong as certain trends have come into focus as he makes his first MLB picks of the month.

2018 MLB Record: 36-26-4, +9.75 (1 Pending)

Milwaukee Brewers (17-13 SU) vs Cincinnati Reds (7-22 SU)

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Free MLB Pick: Milwaukee ML -108Best Line Offered: at 5Dimes

Some major steam has come into this matchup in favor of the Reds and I’m still trying to make sense of it. Any team that is 7-22 SU getting early action is suspect in my opinion. On the surface it looks like a pretty close starting pitching matchup, as the Reds starter Homer Bailey has a 5.28 FIP on the season and Milwaukee starter Chase Anderson has a 5.69 FIP. But that is where the similarities end for this matchup, as the batted ball profiles indicate that Homer Bailey is getting hit very hard this season, with a career high 42.5% hard hit rate. Chase Anderson on the other hand has some of the luck statistics, but a miniscule 13.4% line drive rate and 28.3% hard hit rate.

Anderson has also been competitive in nearly all of his starts, while Bailey has not. Bailey has been touched up with the long ball lately, with multiple home runs in his last two starts that match what his batted ball profiles are telling us. What I think that bettors are latching onto, wrongly, is that Bailey has superb batting average allowed numbers this year. They are well below his career average and because of his luck with BABIP, which currently sits at .234 – nearly 70 points below his career average. That won’t last and I will take the better team here with Milwaukee on the moneyline at -108 at 5Dimes as a Tuesday MLB Pick.

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WARNING: This video contains filthy, nasty material that may not be suitable for all viewers. #Haderade#ThisIsMyCrew pic.twitter.com/t3HnZ1EHR8

— Milwaukee Brewers (@Brewers) May 1, 2018
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Baltimore Orioles (8-20 SU) vs Los Angeles Angels (16-12 SU)

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Free MLB Pick: Angels -1.5 +115Best Line Offered: at 5Dimes

The struggling 8-20 Baltimore Orioles travel to the west coast to take on the Los Angeles Angels on Tuesday, with also struggling Alex Cobb taking the mound. I faded Cobb in his last start against his old team, the Tampa Bay Rays, and he did not disappoint while giving up 5 earned runs and 10 hits and not making it out of the 5th inning. The Rays actually sit just above the Angels in overall offense at this point in the season, so Cobb is getting a bit of a break. Still, this start is on the road where he has a nasty 8.47 FIP and allows an amazing .500 BAA in seven innings pitched. Small sample sizes abound here, but Cobbs batted ball profiles also tell a terrible story. This is especially true with his current line drive rate of 29.3% on the season.

Cobb will match up against Nick Tropeano, who has 3 starts under his belt on the season and not very good numbers. However, his record has been put up against some of the best offenses in the league, of which the Orioles are not. The Orioles are the 26th ranked offense in the land, with a combined .224 batting average the worst on base percentage in the league. Tropeano dominated the Royals on the road a few weeks ago, who have an offense similar to the Orioles this year. I will take the mismatch here and the Angels on the run line at plus odds as one of my Tuesday MLB Picks.

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