Double Play: Mariners, Angels Worth Backing on Road

Wednesday, April 11, 2018 1:36 PM UTC

Wednesday, Apr. 11, 2018 1:36 PM UTC

Mark Lathrop looks to improve on his impressive start to the MLB season while adding some risk to the table, and a rare Wednesday parlay as his MLB Pick of the Day.

2018 MLB Record: 15-5-1, +8.28u

MLB: Wednesday's Double PlaySeattle Mariners (5-4 SU) vs. Kansas City Royals (3-7 SU)Free MLB Pick: Mariners ML -130Best Line Offered: 5Dimes

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Sometimes you jump on a line and then have to write it up later, and for today's game I took James Paxton and the Seattle Mariners -130 on the run line at 5Dimes the second the line came out on the MLB odds board. The Mariners' bats were understandably cold to start their series with the Royals after playing in the freezer in Minnesota, then having another game postponed due to the weather. They got blown out in the first game of the series in Kansas City 10-0, but followed that up with much better offensive and pitching performances in an 8-3 win behind Felix Hernandez. Only a few of the Mariners have an extensive track record against expected Royals starter Danny Duffy, yet the ones that do hit him well, such as Kyle Seager, Robinson Cano, and Jean Segura. Seattle is pounding lefty starters this year in limited action.

Paxton gets the start for the Mariners and owns a career 2.42 ERA and 0.98 WHIP against the Royals. He bounced back after a shaky first start of the season to allow only 2 earned runs in a tough spot in cold weather against Minnesota. With the wind blowing out I will point out that Paxton has allowed only one home run (to Mike Moustakas) against K.C.'s expected lineup. I’ll take Paxton over Duffy any day of the week, and with Seattle's lineup finally getting consistent at-bats they should perform better than the Royals here. I’m taking the Mariners on the moneyline as one of my MLB picks.

Los Angeles Angels (9-3 SU) vs. Texas Rangers (4-9 SU)Free MLB Pick: Angels ML/Over 10.5 ParlayBest Line Offered: 5Dimes

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The Angels have destroyed the Rangers in the first two games of this series, so much so that sixth starter Bartolo Colon was on the mound in Game 2 to save more decimation of the Texas bullpen.

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The Angels beat the Rangers, 11-1. They had 18 hits. Trout hit a HR. Simmons hit a HR. Skaggs threw 114 pitches. Ohtani grounded out as a pinch-hitter. Angels are 9-3 for the first time since 1982.

— Jeff Fletcher (@JeffFletcherOCR) April 11, 2018

Lefty Matt Moore gets the start for the Rangers tonight, and I hope his mom won’t be watching this game. You might not think that would be the case with Moore’s career ERA of 1.78 against the Angels, but his last three games against them have been in 2016, 2013, and 2012. Those games have absolutely no bearing here. What does matter here is that Moore was 6-15 last year with a 5.10 FIP and has been rocked in his first two starts this season. Walks have been a huge issue, as he has gained in a bad way on his 3.46 BB/9 rate from 2017.

For Los Angeles, Jaime Barria will get his first major-league start in a good spot. The 21-year-old doesn’t have the best velocity, but what he does have is excellent control. He has had an under 2.13 BB/9 rate in every stop of the way through the minor leagues. What he will also have behind him is a fully rested bullpen should he run into any trouble, which actually, I’m counting on a little with my play here. The Angels are a "bet on" play with their momentum coming in, but I’m expecting they will have to earn it a bit in this game with the rookie on the mound. However, the setup favors them and it also favors scoring. In this case I will parlay the Angels and the "over" in my MLB picks.

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