Double Play: Late Game Value to Save Your Tuesday Card

Mark Lathrop

Tuesday, April 17, 2018 11:57 AM UTC

Tuesday, Apr. 17, 2018 11:57 AM UTC

Mark Lathrop is completely avoiding the East Coast on Tuesday, as even his picks in a dome are getting delayed lately. Here he spots two games out west with fantastic wagering value.

2018 MLB Record: 18-11-2, +6.10u

Los Angeles Dodgers (7-7 O/U) @ San Diego Padres (7-9 O/U)Free MLB Pick: Over 7.5 Runs Best Line Offered: Heritage

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The Dodgers pay the second game of a short 3-game road trip on Tuesday night against the San Diego Padres and find themselves as heavy -187 favorites on the moneyline at books such as 5Dimes. Somehow, the Padres are ahead of the Dodgers in the standings, and one clue has been their performance against left-handed starters, where they are averaging 4.5 runs per game. They’ll face Alex Wood here, who was destroyed in his last start while giving up 7 earned runs and not making it out of the 3rd inning against the Oakland Athletics at home. Four Padres starters hit better than .300 off of Wood, and 2 of their newer lineup additions in Franchy Cordero and Eric Hosmer have never faced him.

The Padres will counter with Bryan Mitchell, who has had serious control issues in his first three appearances on the season. The new Padre has an interesting, if not terrible, dichotomy of a 1.98 K/9 rate paired with a 9.22 BB/9 rate. That’s one free base runner per inning, which just won’t get it done against a Dodger team getting out of its offensive funk. I can’t trust Wood here with his splits, though, so the value play is to take the over of 7.5 runs currently found at Heritage as my MLB Pick of the Day.

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Five. #Dodgers pic.twitter.com/MmWULiFXSb

— Los Angeles Dodgers (@Dodgers) April 17, 2018
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Houston Astros (10-6 SU) @ Seattle Mariners (8-5 SU)Free MLB Pick: Seattle Mariners +1.5Best Line Offered: 5Dimes

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The Seattle Mariners will try to extend the Astros' cold streak, as they had not covered a run line in 5 games in a row coming into Monday night. The Mariners will have to reverse some trends to do it, though, as the Astros are pretty good against lefties – James Paxton aside. Expected to start on Tuesday is Ariel Miranda, who exhibits a very strong home split in Safeco Field. Last year, Miranda put up a 3.95 ERA and .196 BAA at home vs. a 6.42 ERA and .263 BAA on the road. Fatigue may have also been a problem as Miranda continually got worse all season after a good start the first half of the season.

Countering Miranda will be Lance McCullers Jr., who has only allowed one home run to the expected lineup of Seattle on Tuesday. McCullers lost his last matchup with Miranda and Seattle last year, however, and has averaged 4 runs allowed in his last two starts against the Mariners. He’s had a very strange start to his season with a 3.77 FIP and a crazy 40% HR/FB rate. What does stick out is that McCullers' hard-hit rates have skyrocketed to 42.9%, so there is definitely something up with him to start the year. I’ll take the chance to back the home underdog here, and take the Mariners +1.5 on the run line at even money as another Tuesday MLB Pick of the Day.

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