Double Play: Kluber Dominates, Holland has Sneaky Value

Saturday, April 14, 2018 2:54 PM UTC

Saturday, Apr. 14, 2018 2:54 PM UTC

Mark Lathrop is 17-8-2 and +8.30 units for the first two weeks of the season in his MLB Picks. He's found two more games today that are worthy to be his MLB Picks of the Day. 

2018 MLB Record: 17-8-2, +8.30u

Toronto Blue Jays (5-8 O/U) vs Cleveland Indians (5-9 O/U)

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Free MLB Pick: Under 7 Runs Best Line Offered: at 5Dimes

One of the hottest pitchers in baseball will start for Cleveland on Saturday, as Corey Kluber has allowed just 4 runs over his first 3 starts and 23 innings pitched. He’s sitting on 10.57 K/9 versus 1.57 BB/9 rates and has a 2.35 FIP and .143 BAA. He’ll face a Toronto Blue Jays lineup that will be missing Josh Donaldson, Kendrys Morales, and Troy Tulowitzki, and the remaining batters in the lineup don’t present many red flags against Kluber. Kluber’s last start against Toronto was a 14 strikeout gem in which he only allowed one earned run.

Starting for the Blue Jays is Jaime Garcia, who has a 1-0 win loss record coming into this game after allowing 3 runs or less in his first two starts of the year. It’s his first season with the Blue Jays, and both his strikeout and walk rates are showing small sample size improvement. He doesn’t have much of a history against the lineup he will see in Cleveland, just about two full games worth of at bats around, but he hasn’t given up a home run against them so far. The wind will be blowing in strongly from left field in this game, so I like that trend to continue. I’m expecting Kluber to dominate and that is baked into the lines available. However, with Garcia having a great chance to be competent I will add under 7 runs here as one of my MLB Picks.

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Numbers and more from game 2 in San Diego:

Saturday's start time: 5:40pm PDT


— San Francisco Giants (@SFGiants) April 14, 2018

San Francisco Giants (6-7 SU) vs Houston Astros (5-10 SU)

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Free MLB Pick: San Francisco ML Best Line Offered: at 5Dimes

The San Francisco Giants split the first two games of a 4-game series against the San Diego Padres and will look to continue the Padres pain on Saturday night. New Giants starter, lefty Derek Holland, has been very unlucky in his first two losses of the season as he had no offensive support in a 2-1 loss against Arizona and a 5-0 loss against the Dodgers. An average of 0.5 run of support is not going to cut it. He’s been fantastic otherwise, with a 1.96 FIP, .132 BAA, and 28.5% strikeout rate. What is quite easy to forget for the long-time veteran is this is his first turn in the National League, where he only has to face 8 real batters in a lineup versus 9 with a DH.

Clayton Richard gets the home start for the Padres, and he’ll have to exercise some demons he has against this particular Giants lineup to have a shot here. 5 San Francisco batters, the middle of the lineup really, have OBPs over .400 against Richard, and Evan Longoria is not one of them. He gave up 2 dingers in his last start (Holland has none) and is carrying a 4.28 FIP into this game with a .288 BAA and 1.53 WHIP. It appears that I can have the better performing pitcher and lineup here at even odds, so I’ll be taking the San Francisco Giants +102 at 5Dimes as one of my Saturday MLB Picks.

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