Double Play: High-Low Wagers to Consider Friday Night

Mark Lathrop

Friday, April 27, 2018 11:46 AM UTC

Friday, Apr. 27, 2018 11:46 AM UTC

Yesterday, our MLB handicapper identified edges that played out on the field yet didn't yield winning results. He's in it for the long haul as he brings us his two top Friday MLB Picks.
 

Arizona Diamondbacks (11-11 O/U) @ Washington Nationals (11-12 O/U)Free MLB Pick: Over 7 Runs Best Line Offered: 5Dimes

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The Washington Nationals return home from a west coast road trip that ended in an offensive explosion as they put up 15 runs against the San Francisco Giants on Wednesday night. On Friday, they host the Arizona Diamondbacks, who are starting right-hander Zach Godley. Washington has been very good against right-handed starters this year, putting up 5.1 runs per game against them and a .258 BAA. That is over 16 games and 563 at-bats as well, so the sample size is getting decent. Godley comes in with a very good 2.72 FIP over just 23.1 innings, but the small sample size also indicates that batters are pulling the ball off of him at a career-high pace. There are six Nationals batters who have hit Godley well in limited action.

The Nationals will counter with Stephen Strasburg, who has had mixed results over 5 starts and a 2-2 record. His BABIP indicates he has had great luck, and that is also shown with his ERA of 2.97 against a 4.27 FIP. Dingers have been a huge problem for Strasburg this year, as he has given up a home run in 4 of 5 games and multiple home runs twice while putting up a 21.5% HR/FB rate. Looking at the Arizona splits against Strasburg, and it doesn’t look like he will get out of this game unscathed, either. I’ll take that into consideration while making a wager on 'over 7 runs as one of my Friday night MLB Picks.

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YESTERDAY: 15 runs and a #CurlyW

TODAY: @papajohns for lunch and lots of pizza emojis...

🍕🍕🍕🍕🍕🍕🍕🍕🍕🍕🍕🍕🍕🍕🍕 pic.twitter.com/BVP1ECLj9F

— Washington Nationals (@Nationals) April 26, 2018
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Los Angeles Dodgers (12-11 O/U) @ San Francisco Giants (10-14 O/U)Free MLB Pick: Under 8Best Line Offered: 5Dimes

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The Giants' pitching staff got a day off at home to reflect on the 15 runs they gave up to the Washington Nationals on Wednesday. They’ll return in a good spot here, with lefty Derek Holland on the mound against a Dodgers team that doesn’t hit left-handers well. Holland faced these Dodgers in his first start of the year and gave up 3 earned runs on just 3 hits. Errors by the Giants defense derailed his start that ended in a 5-0 loss that went 'under' the listed total. The Dodgers have put up only 3.1 runs per game and a .202 BAA against left-handed starters this year. That would include the unearned runs against Holland in that first game.

Hyun-Jin Ryu will start for the Dodgers, and he had the Giants' number last year while allowing just 2 earned runs over 3 starts. All of those games went 'under' the listed total, and he only walked 2 batters in those starts as well. Ryu is also a lefty and will face a Giants team that is averaging 3.1 runs and .219 BAA against southpaws. Not going to overthink this game too much and grab the 'under' while I still can as another Friday MLB Pick.

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