Double Play: Hidden Value in Phillies and Brewers on Road

Mark Lathrop

Thursday, July 12, 2018 12:57 PM UTC

Thursday, Jul. 12, 2018 12:57 PM UTC

It's the last article from our expert MLB handicapper, Mark Lathrop, before the All-Star break. He has dialed up some of the best angles he has found in a while for today's MLB picks of the day.

2018 MLB Record: 208-88-26, +18.01u
*Note: Record includes official Twitter selections (@mlathrop3)

MLB Thursday: Double PlayPhiladelphia Phillies (51-39 SU) vs. Baltimore Orioles (26-66 SU)Free MLB Pick: Phillies ML -109Best Line Offered: JustBet

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The Philadelphia Phillies travel a short distance to face the Baltimore Orioles this evening, and the starting pitching matchup is deceptively in favor of the Phillies. Even though Baltimore starter Kevin Gausman has a 4.11 ERA and Philadelphia starter Nick Pivetta has an ERA of 4.67, Pivetta’s splits against right-handed batters give him a clear advantage because Baltimore is very right-handed heavy in their lineup. Pivetta carries a .225 BAA, 63/13 K/BB rate, 1.12 WHIP, and an elite 2.97 xFIP against right-handers on the season. Baltimore could have 8 right-handers in the lineup tonight if they start their regulars.

I can’t exactly say Gausman will be terrible in this matchup, but average is not going to cut it here with the run support I am predicting. His split against right-handers will haunt him here, as he allows a .288 BAA and 19.3% HR/FB rate against that split and the Phillies can run 8 righties into the lineup. There is also the team trends to consider here, as the Phillies are 8-4 in interleague play and the Orioles are 6-11, as well as 15-46 against right-handed starters. Take the better team and better pitcher here at almost even money with the Phillies as one of your Thursday MLB picks.

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Nothing to see here ... Just your everyday 5-3-4-6-4 double play.

¯\\_(ツ)_/¯ pic.twitter.com/DoFDylAgqg

— Philadelphia Phillies (@Phillies) July 12, 2018
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Milwaukee Brewers (55-37 SU) vs. Pittsburgh Pirates (42-49 SU)Free MLB Pick: Brewers ML +120Best Line Offered: 5Dimes

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Not only do we get a team with a winning record against a team with a losing record at plus money in this game, but we also get a favorable pitching matchup to boot. Wade Miley comes off the DL to start for the Brewers and will face a Pittsburgh Pirates team that is 8-15 off of left-handed starters on the season. Miley was very good before going on the DL, did not have any velocity issues due to his injury, and has been excellent in his rehab starts with a 9.95 K/9 and 1.42 BB/9 rates.

The Brewers will face Jameson Taillon, who is 1-4 starting against Milwaukee and has already lost twice to them this year. It is not a surprise to me that Taillon struggles with Milwaukee’s balanced lineup, that includes at least 4 lefties, as he allows a .262 BAA and has a 36/22 K/BB rate against that split. Taillon is also having a hard time getting through the lineup a third time, as he carries a 7.50 ERA that time through the order. That could expose us to the Pittsburgh bullpen which is not as good as the Brewers and has an overall ERA of 4.48. This is a pretty easy call for me given the odds, and I will take the Brewers at plus money as another of my Thursday MLB picks.

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