Double Play: Handicapper Focuses on Lefties for Monday Action

martin perez

Mark Lathrop

Monday, April 16, 2018 11:37 AM UTC

Monday, Apr. 16, 2018 11:37 AM UTC

It's Monday and our MLB handicapper, Mark Lathrop, is focusing on indoor games so that his work for us is not wasted with delayed games. Read on as he makes two MLB Picks of the Day sure to make it to first pitch!

2018 MLB Record: 18-10-2, +7.10u

Kansas City Royals (4-9 O/U) @ Toronto Blue Jays (5-8 O/U)Free MLB Pick: Over 8.5 Runs Best Line Offered: 5Dimes

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The Toronto Blue Jays must be glad to be home where they can actually play some baseball, as the had a terrible time in Cleveland over the weekend due to the weather. It appears as if Jaime Garcia will keep his spot in the rotation, and although my pick for him against Cleveland was to back an 'under,' that is not the case against this Kansas City lineup. The power hitters of Kansas City have all done well against Garcia historically, and as a team the Royals are hitting lefty starters much better than righties.

Kansas City hasn’t hit well on the road yet this year, but that has come against their AL Central opponents in some terrible weather conditions. Their 4-9 O/U trend this season is skewed as a result, which may be bringing us some wagering value tonight. I show Danny Duffy as the listed starter in this game, and six batters in the expected Toronto lineup have an OPS over .400 against him. Base runners equal runs in most cases, so I’m expecting Toronto to keep up with their 5.1 runs per game average against the Royals here. I’ll take Over 8.5 runs under the dome in Canada as one of my Monday MLB Picks of the Day.

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3 years ago today, @KPILLAR4 did the impossible. pic.twitter.com/8UHFfQMnay

— Toronto Blue Jays (@BlueJays) April 15, 2018
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Texas Rangers (7-8 O/U) @ Tampa Bay Rays (8-6 O/U)Free MLB Pick: Under 8 RunsBest Line Offered: 5Dimes

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Both of these lineups appear to be shorthanded Monday, which brings value to the under side of the equation here. Martin Perez gets the start for the Rangers, in maybe the best spot he’ll find himself in all year. Tampa Bay is terrible against lefties, just hitting .190 off of them this year over 5 games, and also don’t have many batters with history of success off of him. Tampa has also lost 8 of its last 10 games and averages 2.3 runs per game at home.

Starting for Tampa Bay is another lefty in Blake Snell, who has never faced anyone in this Texas Ranger lineup. Hopefully that is a positive for him, with Texas batting just .231 against lefty starters this season. He had a very interesting winning start his last time out in Chicago, as he paired 10 strikeouts with 5 walks in a 6-5 win over the White Sox. I’ll dismiss the walks here, and rely on his excellent home split from 2017 where Snell put up a 3.32 ERA and .202 BAA. At just 25 years old, Snell has potential, and I wouldn’t be surprised if he twirled a gem here. Pairing that with Perez in a good spot to pitch well I will take Under 8 runs here as another MLB Pick.

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