Double Play: Good Pitching Abounds in Wednesday's Matchups

red sox

Mark Lathrop

Wednesday, May 16, 2018 12:48 PM UTC

Wednesday, May. 16, 2018 12:48 PM UTC

A rough day for MLB handicapper Mark Lathrop on Tuesday has him getting back to basics as he looks at the Wednesday card for wagering value.

2018 MLB Record: 71-49-7, +19.71, 15.39% ROI (1 Pending)
*Note: Record includes official Twitter selections (@mlathrop3)

MLB: Wednesday's Double PlayOakland Athletics (21-18 O/U) vs. Boston Red Sox (20-20 O/U)Free MLB Pick: Under 8.5 Runs -115Best Line Offered: 5Dimes

[/]{"component":"oddswidget", "eventId":3388109, "sportsbooksIds":[19,139,93,180,238], "LineTypeId":3, "PeriodTypeId":1}[/]

Trevor Cahill draws the short straw in facing Boston’s Chris Sale today, yet there are signs that he should be very competitive in this matchup. He has a 2.39 FIP on the year over 4 starts and will face Boston for just the third time since 2011. All of Cahill’s splits are positive at the moment and he is getting righties out, lefties out, and everyone in between home or away. His BABIP of .283 is almost equal to his career average so the luck factor isn’t in play here either. Cahill has a 11.63 K/9 and 2.25 BB/9 rate on the season, which would qualify as elite.

Sale has been fantastic this season as well, with a 2.62 FIP and insane 12.10 K/9 and 1.71 BB/9 rates. His line drive rate has improved from last year to 18.8%, and his hard-hit rate is 26.9%. The weather checks out for a normal game, so I really can’t find anything to warrant the total that has been listed for these two starters. I’ll take "under" 8.5 runs at -115 while it is still available as one of my Wednesday MLB picks.

St. Louis Cardinals (22-16 SU) vs. Minnesota Twins (17-20 SU)Free MLB Pick: Cardinals -119 MLBest Line Offered: 5Dimes

[/]{"component":"oddswidget", "eventId":3387818, "sportsbooksIds":[19,999996,1096,169,1275], "LineTypeId":2, "PeriodTypeId":1}[/]

This is a game that I was originally investigating to take the home underdog and eventually became convinced that the line was correct. Not only does Minnesota starter Lance Lynn have a sub-par FIP of 5.50 on the season, he has a repertoire of pitches that will get hit by the Cardinals. Should I even mention his 6.55 BB/9 rate over 34.1 innings pitched this season? This Cardinals lineup is very good against fastballs and sinkers, nearly 70% of Lynn’s offerings, and should be able to touch him up similar to the 4 ER or more he has allowed in 5 of his 7 starts this season.

Countering Lynn for the Cardinals is Miles Mikolas, who is nearing his high mark in innings pitched in a professional season. He’s been great, though, with a 2.51 ERA over 7 starts ad 46.2 innings pitched. He matches up well with the Twins too, as he throws a lot of bendy stuff that has been shown that the Twins don’t square up well. Then there is the fact that the Twins don’t have one batter on their roster that hits over .295 against right-handers, period. The Cardinals are the better team, and as another of my Wednesday MLB picks I will take them at the reasonable moneyline of -119 on the MLB odds board.

[/]{"component": "embedHTML", "code": "

Grab a buddy! Baseball begins now. pic.twitter.com/jU4PS4jVXC

— St. Louis Cardinals (@Cardinals) May 16, 2018
\n\n"}[/]

comment here