Double Play: Favorable Pitching Matchups Lead to Pair of 'Overs'

Mark Lathrop

Monday, April 30, 2018 3:46 PM UTC

Monday, Apr. 30, 2018 3:46 PM UTC

MLB handicapper Mark Lathrop comes off a hot weekend looking for a final chance to add to his impressive April record. Check out his two value picks from Monday's betting card.

2018 MLB Record: 35-25-4, +9.80

MLB Monday: Double PlayPhiladelphia Phillies (11-17 SU) vs. Miami Marlins (14-12 SU)Free MLB Pick: Phillies F5 TT Over 2Best Line Offered: 5Dimes

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The Phillies start an NL East road trip with a series in Miami, facing Dan Straily in the opening game tonight. It’s a good matchup for Philadelphia, as they have hit Straily hard over his last three starts against them – with those three starts coming in a three-week timeframe late last August through September. Straily has his demons in this Phillies lineup, namely Rhys Hoskins who is 6-for-10 off of him with three dingers. Four expected starters in the lineup for Philadelphia today have on-base percentages of more than .412 against Straily. This will be the first MLB start of the season for Straily as he comes off an early season injury, but his rehab numbers were terrible in the minors.

Starting opposite of Straily is Jake Arrieta, who has pitched well this year to the tune of a 3.22 FIP while picking up three wins in his first four starts. He’s been equally as good against right-handers and lefties, putting up a .195 BAA against southpaws and a .149 BAA against righties through his 24.2 innings pitched. Arrieta will be glad that Marlins first baseman Justin Bour is questionable in this game as he has the best record against him in limited action. Being that the Miami lineup is in a bit of flux, I’ll jump on the best value I can find at the moment which is to fade Straily using a first 5 innings Philadelphia team total, taking "over" 2 at 5Dimes as a Monday MLB pick. If you don’t have a book that offers first 5 inning team total lines, check out all of the sportsbook reviews here.

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Miguel Rojas touched 'em all yesterday for his fourth home run of the year.#JustGettinStarted pic.twitter.com/xrjnc5XQJe

— Miami Marlins (@Marlins) April 30, 2018
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Los Angeles Dodgers (15-11 SU) vs. Arizona Diamondbacks (14-11 SU)Free MLB Pick: Over 8 RunsBest Line Offered: 5Dimes

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The Dodgers are in a bit of a funk but will be glad to have Cody Bellinger back in the lineup tonight against the Arizona Diamondbacks. The Dodgers have been crushing right-handed pitching this year and put up 5.7 runs per game against them on a .265 batting average. Those games against right-handed starters have cashed "overs" at a nifty 13-4 clip. Here they will face Zach Greinke, who beat the Dodgers his last start out but got touched for two home runs as well. It was his second start in a row giving up two homers to the Dodgers. This is not surprising to me, as Greinke’s prevalent fastball/slider combination plays into the strengths of the components of the current Dodgers lineup. Greinke will need to have his change-up rolling to have a chance to beat the Dodgers tonight.

The Dodgers counter with Ross Stripling, getting his first start of the year after being effective in a relief role over 10 appearances and 14.1 innings pitched. As a starter in 2016 Stripling was average and put up a 3.90 FIP in 100 innings pitched. Like Greinke, he has a fastball/slider combination and is a strike thrower. Even though the Dodgers have a favorable matchup against Greinke, I can’t back Stripling here because we won’t know how deep he can pitch in this game. This will expose us to MLB's 22nd-ranked bullpen, as the Dodgers' relieving corp has a 4.12 combined FIP and walks batters at a 3.70 BB/9 clip. I’ll take that exposure for what it’s worth, and combined with Greinke’s issues add "over" 8 runs in this game as another Monday MLB pick.

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