Double Play: Coors Field to Play to Park Factors for Lots of Runs

Mark Lathrop

Wednesday, July 11, 2018 1:04 PM UTC

Wednesday, Jul. 11, 2018 1:04 PM UTC

MLB handicapper Mark Lathrop is going fishing today and here he'll try to fish for value as he looks at two totals baiting us to take the "over." He'll set the hook with his Wednesday picks of the day.

2018 MLB Record: 204-81-25, +21.08 (4 Pending)
*Note: Record includes official Twitter selections (@mlathrop3)

MLB Wednesday: Double PlayArizona Diamondbacks (43-43 SU) vs. Colorado Rockies (42-44 SU)Free MLB Pick: Over 11.5 Runs -115Best Line Offered: JustBet

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In the hotly contested NL West an important series continues between the Arizona Diamondbacks and Colorado Rockies tonight. The weather is hot so the ball will fly, and if we have the right pitching matchup we should have some scoring. Let’s start with the expected Arizona starter in Shelby Miller. Miller will be making his 4th start of the season after missing most of last year and the offseason with Tommy John surgery. The velocity is back for Miller, but his ball movement is apparently not as he is carrying a terrible 61.4% hard hit rate over his first 14 innings pitched. He’s given up 5 or more runs in each of his first three starts, but his 5.34 FIP is a more accurate measure of how he has pitched.

Going against Miller will be German Marquez, who has a mental block or something every time he pitches at Coors Field. Keep in mind I am comparing these stats to a 2.62 ERA and .197 BAA on the road for Marquez. At home he’s an entirely different pitcher, carrying a 7.93 ERA and .332 BAA. The difference appears to be that he is pitching scared, as the batted ball statistics are nearly identical in his home/away split, but Marquez has a walk rate of 4.50 BB/9 at home versus 2.29 BB/9 on the road. That helps bring his home WHIP up to 1.95 and will shorten an outing and bring the Colorado bullpen into play earlier in the game. With Miller unable to be trusted and Marquez a basket case, I will be taking "over" 11.5 runs in this game as a Wednesday MLB pick.

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Just 8 of the 30 #MLB Teams have a winning record against the Over this season:
Indians 46-40-3 (53.5%)
Reds 46-40-5 (53.5)
Braves 45-40-4 (52.9)
Pirates 44-40-6 (52.4)
Dodgers 45-42-3 (51.7)
Marlins 47-44-2 (51.6)
Athletics 43-41-7 (51.2)
BlueJays 42-41-6 (50.6)

— SBR Sports Picks (@SBRSportsPicks) July 10, 2018

Washington Nationals (36-52 O/U) vs. Pittsburgh Pirates (36-52 O/U)Free MLB Pick: Over 9 Runs -115Best Line Offered: 5Dimes

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The lefty heavy lineup of the Washington Nationals may give Pittsburgh Pirates starter Trevor Williams some trouble as he has some weaknesses against that split. The main issue is his inability to strike out southpaws, as he has a 4.30 K/9 rate against them as compared to an 8.46 K/9 against righties. Williams will see at least 5 very good left-handers tonight. Williams has also regressed mightily from a stellar April and put up a 4.59 FIP in May and a 4.69 FIP in June. His last start was a disaster against the Phillies, in which he lasted just 2.1 innings and gave up 5 earned runs while striking out nobody.

Gio Gonzalez gets the start for the Nationals and carries a 6-5 record into this early afternoon matchup. One of the reasons I’ve been skeptical to back Gonzalez in spots is that he has put up his worst walk rate since 2009 at 4.42 BB/9. Like Williams, that has been to a particular split, as he has a terrible 5.09 BB/9 rate against right-handers. The Pirates' best hitters are lefties, but he will still see 5 right-handers in this game to take free passes before they come up to bat. I see early offense in this game off of these starters, or at least exposure to questionable bullpens, so I’ll take "over" 9 runs as another Wednesday MLB pick.

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