Double Play: Angels' Bridwell Due for Positive Regression vs. A's

parker bridwell

Mark Lathrop

Friday, April 6, 2018 11:57 AM UTC

Friday, Apr. 6, 2018 11:57 AM UTC

Mark Lathrop has started off hot in MLB Picks and looks to some home favorites to keep things rolling. Here he presents two options not too chalky to add to your Friday betting card.

2018 MLB Record: 8-2-1, +6.42u

Oakland Athletics (3-4 SU) @ Los Angeles Angels (5-2 SU)Free MLB Pick: Angels MLBest Line Offered: 5Dimes

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The Angels continue a six-game homestand Friday evening after taking Thursday off. They’ll be riding high after dealing the Cleveland Indians a series loss earlier in the week and turn to Parker Bridwell to keep the good juices flowing. Bridwell pitched a little over his head last year with the Angels but did his job while picking up a 10-3 record and 3.64 ERA. He had the benefit of some luck with a .262 BABIP, but he did limit hard contact overall. Bridwell is due for some serious positive regression vs. the A’s, with a 19.50 ERA over two starts against them late last year. Interestingly enough, each of those games ended up as wins for the Angels. No Athletics batter has more than 4 at bats vs. him, and betting markets may be reacting to a small sample size.

Starting for the Athletics is Daniel Gossett, who has already faced the Angels once this year and didn’t make it past the 4th inning. In fact, Gossett hasn’t made it into the 5th inning in any of his last three starts – all losses. Gossett has never beaten the Angels, and his 5.59 FIP in 2017 carried over to his first performance in 2018. To be honest, he doesn’t have many at-bats against the Angels' lineup either, but his overall talent level is lower than Bridwell’s has been over a season. I’ll take the hot home team here with the line moving our way with a wager on the Angels at -130 on the moneyline as one of my MLB Picks.

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Bigger than baseball. pic.twitter.com/27cxnr1HAE

— Angels (@Angels) April 5, 2018
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San Diego Padres (1-6 SU) @ Houston Astros (6-1 SU)Free MLB Pick: Astros RLBest Line Offered: Pinnacle

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Luis Perdomo of the Padres has a very good redeeming feature in that he keeps the ball on the ground at very good rates -- 61% in 2017. Unfortunately for him, that is where the good in his situation will end Friday night against the Astros. Even though the Padres will have a designated hitter in the lineup, they will be drastically shorthanded without Wil Myers. The Padres batters who have seen Astros starter Lance McCullers Jr. are the projected middle of their lineup, and they have put up a 2-for-23 mark and a 8/0 K/BB rate. No other Padres projected batter in their lineup has seen McCullers pitch.

The Astros are 6-1 SU on the year and in those wins have covered the run line 5 times. McCullers is coming off of a masterful road performance against the Rangers with 10 strikeouts and 2 earned runs. McCullers put up a 3.30 FIP in 2017 over 118.2 innings pitched, and when healthy is one of the better pitchers in baseball. Don’t overthink this matchup too much and take the Astros at decent value on the run line as one of your Friday MLB Picks.

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