Don't Let the High Total Scare You, Angels and Rangers Will Score Plenty of Runs

Charles Stark

Saturday, July 4, 2015 12:00 AM UTC

Saturday, Jul. 4, 2015 12:00 AM UTC

We are bringing back the OPOD, opposite play of the day in the American League when the Angels take on the Rangers in Texas. The total for this game is set at 9 and to me that does not make a lot of sense. 

Neither of these teams are ranked in the top part of the league offensively, and both of these pitchers have ERA's under 4.00. So the obvious pick seems to be under the total, but I am going the opposite way and taking the over in this matchup.

Right now the line has been set by MLB odds makers at 9 for the total. Right now this line is set at regular juice at -110 at pretty much every sportsbook. Some places have the over at -115, but at sportsbooks like Pinnacle and Bookmaker you can get the over the total for this game at that -110.


The Lefties
Wandy Rodriguez takes the mound for the Texas Rangers with a 3.91 ERA and 1.43 WHIP. He has been hot and cold this season, for example, two starts ago he allowed eight earned runs in just four innings pitched, but in his last outing he allowed only one earned run in five innings pitched. For him, coming off a really good outing makes my radar go up a bit at this high total. What really makes my radar go up though is his opponent on the mound in Hector Santiago, who comes in with a 2.58 ERA and 1.13 WHIP. He has not been hot and cold this year, only hot. In his last two games he has only given up two earned runs in 13 innings and is simply been the Angels best pitcher statistically this season. Both of these pitchers have good enough stuff and are coming off very good outings which makes this total simply seem too high, but I am all about the OPOD today.

Must Read: MLB Picks: Updated World Series Futures Odds

At The Plate
Let's continue with the mentality that this is our opposite play of the day when we look at the offenses. Texas ranks 10th in the league in runs scored per game and the Angels rank 24th. This is what we see from these two teams, nothing jumps out and screams that they are going to score a lot of runs today, yet that line keeps turning in my head. Texas ranks 16th in the league in on base plus slugging percentage and the Angels 22nd, again pretty mediocre and simply middle tiered. Continuing the theme, Texas ranks 17th in hits per game and the Angels 27th. Offensively these two teams are subpar at best and not ranked among the elite offenses of the league in any category.

Sometimes an OPOD can really make a handicapper's head spin. For me though, when the numbers don't add up it actually can tell you a lot about the direction this game is probably headed. Don't let the numbers or lack thereof offensively throw you off of what the MLB odds makers have set this number at, back the over with confidence.

MLB Pick: 'Over' 9 at 5Dimes

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