Don't be Fooled by the Line: Bet Twins +104 vs. Rangers

Charles Stark

Sunday, June 14, 2015 11:26 AM UTC

Sunday, Jun. 14, 2015 11:26 AM UTC

In forming our MLB pick for Sunday's match in Texas, we are looking the opposite way from what the odds makers have set as the obvious play. Find out why you should jump on Twins as underdogs. 

I am taking a different approach to today's MLB pick.  I am going to coin this my "OPOD" or opposite play of the day.  This is the game where every stat is going one way but the odds makers have not made the favorite a big enough favorite.  Basically it goes like this... the line looks WAY to easy on the favorite so we are going to go the opposite way of the obvious choice, and take the underdog.  Today we will back the Twins. In all estimation the Twins should be about a +130 or above dog but right now they are about +108.  You can get that line at Pinnacle and a few other reputable books.


Pitchers OPOD
Phil Hughes comes in for the Twins with a whopping 4.81 ERA and 1.32 WHIP.  He usually gets a quality start but in his last three games he has given up 12 earned runs in 17 innings.  He consistently gives up runs and is not a big strikeout pitcher.  For the Rangers Nick Martinez takes the mound with 2.65 ERA and 1.30 WHIP.  He has had only really one bad outing this year, his last home game against the White Sox.  Besides that he has been really solid not allowing more than 3 runs in any of his previous starts this season.  The pitching matchup looks like a no brainer, Hughes has struggled, Martinez has pitched much better, but remember we are OPOD in this spot.


Offensive OPOD
I will keep this simple, the Rangers rank higher than the Twins in every major offensive category including runs, hits, on base %, and slugging.  And in these categories they rank usually several spots higher.  The only category in which they are similar is the advanced metric of average on balls in play.

After getting thumped yesterday you would think the Rangers would continue to roll today against a subpar pitcher in Hughes.  But with the MLB odds betting line looking much too small for each of these teams statistically we are going to implement OPOD in this spot and back the Twins on the plus money line.

MLB Picks: Twins +104 at Pinnacle 

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