Dog The Brewers +166 As Your MLB Pick vs. Cardinals

LT Profits Sports Group

Wednesday, April 13, 2016 3:11 PM UTC

Wednesday, Apr. 13, 2016 3:11 PM UTC

Cardinals took this series opener 10-1 while belting out 10 extra-base hits but the underdog Brewers could get some revenge at a nice priceaccording to MLB odds, behind Chase Anderson.


MLB Record: 7-3, +5.01

There could be an upset in the “Show Me State” Wednesday night when the promising Chase Anderson and the Milwaukee Brewers (3-4, 0-1 away) pay a visit to the disappointing fellow right-hander Mike Leake and the St. Louis Cardinals (4-3, 1-0 home) at Busch Stadium in St. Louis, MO at 8:15 ET in a game available on FOX Sports - Midwest. The posted money line at Heritage has Milwaukee as a road underdog for this contest at current MLB odds boards of +127.


Cardinals Won Series Opener in a Rout
In the spirit of full disclosure, we also backed the Brewers in the first game of this series on Monday and the Cardinals made us look quite foolish while pummeling Milwaukee 10-1 and belting out 19 hits with 10 of those going for extra-bases (8 doubles, 2 triples)! Thus the Cardinals have now won four straight games since getting swept by the Pirates in a three-game series in Pittsburgh to begin the season.

The Brewers had been the winning MLB picks in three of their last four games before the Monday debacle where the considered ace of the staff Taylor Jungmann had nothing, as he was charged with eight earned runs while lasting just two innings and allowing eight hits. Thus the off day yesterday came at a good time for the Milwaukee bullpen after the Brewers used four relievers after that short outing for Jungmann.


Happy to Leave Arizona?
The Brewers are considered to have one of the worst starting rotations in baseball, but at least they have three pitchers that have the potential to exceed expectations in Jungmann, Jimmy Nelson and tonight’s starter Anderson, who came over from the Diamondbacks as part of the trade for Jean Segura.

Anderson was highly regarded when he first came up with Arizona two years ago and he even had a nice first few months to his Major League career before tapering off late and finishing 9-7 but with a 4.01 ERA, and he then followed that up by going 6-6 with a 4.30 ERA last season. However, Arizona has one of the more pronounced hitter’s parks in the league and Anderson has actually accumulated a collective 3.95 xFIP over his brief career.

Thus, a change in scenery to less of a hitter’s park could be just what he needs to get his career on track and he certainly sparkled in his Brewers’ debut at home vs. the Houston Astros on Friday, allowing four hits in five scoreless innings with five strikeouts and not a single walk before Manager Craig Counsell pulled him after 85 pitches. Expect a much longer leash for Anderson here in his second start of the year.

Disappointing Cardinal Debut
As for Leake, he has never been anything special while having moderate success spending most of his Major League career with the Cincinnati Reds except for spending the last two months of last season with the San Francisco Giants. The Cardinals took a chance on Leake though after they lost John Lackey to the division rival Cubs despite the fact that he showed signs of decline last year, finishing with a combined 4.20 FIP over his two stops.

Granted this would not be the first time St. Louis pitching coach Derek Lilliquist turned a reclamation project into a bona fide starter, not unlike his predecessor Dave Duncan. However, Leake does not appear to have taken hold of any advice just yet as he struggled from the start in his Cardinal debut vs. the Pirates last Wednesday, surrendering four earned runs on seven hits plus three walks with just one strikeout while needing 99 pitches to go just 4.1 innings.

Also Leake has not had much success in 10 career starts vs. the Brewers, going 2-4 with a bloated 4.60 ERA and 1.52 WHIP with Milwaukee batters hitting .310 off of him.


Differing Effects of Off Day
Finally, these teams had yesterday off after the Cardinals’ home opener on Monday, and if you like fun facts that go against the grain, consider that the Brewers are 5-2 in their last seven games following an off day while the Cardinals are just 2-6 in their last eight games following a day off.

With the Brewers looking to have the edge in starting pitching in this game, look for that oddity to continue and back Milwaukee as a nice underdog price visiting St. Louis on Wednesday.

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Free MLB Pick: Brewers +166
Best Line Offered: at Bovada


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