Dodgers vs. Padres MLB Picks: Great Money Line Betting Value on San Diego

Ross Benjamin

Saturday, April 25, 2015 6:46 PM GMT

Our MLB consultant examines the game today between the Dodgers and Padres at Petco Park in San Diego. Join us in reading his insightful take on this NL West affair which culminates with a money line selection.

Starting Pitchers
The Los Angeles Dodgers will go with right-hander Brandon McCarthy on the mound tonight. As MLB odds makers know, McCarthy has gone 3-0 in his team starts in 2015 with a 4.50 ERA. He’s made one start versus the Padres this season and it came during a 7-4 Dodgers win. In that outing, he allowed four earned runs on nine hits in 5.0 innings pitched. McCarthy has gone a horrible 1-15 in his career team starts on the road when installed as -100 to -150 on the money line.

The Padres will counter with veteran right-hander Ian Kennedy who’s making just his second start of the season. In six starts versus the Dodgers in 2014, Kennedy posted a 4.00 ERA, and a 1.36 WHIP. Kennedy has gone a terrific 10-1 in his career team starts as a money line home underdog of +100 to +125.

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Money Line Betting System
Play against any National League money line road favorite of -110 or more (Dodgers), playing in the first half of the season, and has a starting pitcher (Brandon McCarthy) with an ERA of 4.20 to .4.70. Playing on the home underdog when this exact situation has occurred, resulted in going 18-5 (78.3%) during the past three seasons.

 

Final Analysis
The San Diego Padres have hit 16 home runs in their first eighteen games of 2015. That’s not good news for the Dodgers, since scheduled starting pitcher Brandon McCarthy has allowed 6 home runs in just 18.0 innings pitched this season. As a matter of fact, McCarthy allowed 2 home runs in 5.0 innings versus the Padres at Dodgers Stadium on 4/8/2015. Despite their 3-0 win last night, the Dodgers have gone just 2-5 on the road to start this year, and have averaged a paltry 2.7 runs per game during those seven outings. I’m leaning toward the home underdog in this divisional battle for one of my MLB picks on Saturday.

Free MLB Pick: Play the Padres +105 on the money line over the Dodgers at BetOnline