Dodgers vs. Diamondbacks Series Odds: MLB Picks

Darin Zank

Friday, April 11, 2014 1:07 PM UTC

Friday, Apr. 11, 2014 1:07 PM UTC

The Dodgers and Diamondbacks opened this 2014 MLB season seven thousand miles from home, when LA took two games from Arizona in Australia two and a half weeks ago. How should MLB bettors expect things to play out when the two meet for a three game set?


13th April
Dodgers vs. Cardinals Game 3

By: Ron Patrick


Los Angeles grabbed Game 2 of this series Saturday night 8-5, getting another home run from Adrian Gonzalez – his third in the last three games – while Zack Greinke picked up his third victory of the season. The Dodgers won as -120 chalk on the MLB betting line, and the game played OVER its total of eight.

LA jumped out to a 5-0 lead Saturday night, and led 8-2 into the bottom of the ninth, before Arizona put up three meaningless runs off Dodgers reliever Brandon League.

LA will try to finish off the sweep of this series when the teams meet Sunday afternoon (4:10 pm ET).


Sunday's Line
As of early Sunday morning most books were listing LA and Dan Haren at around -125 over Arizona and Trevor Cahill, with a total of nine.

The Dodgers were also getting around +145 on the run line at various shops.

 Shop for the best MLB World Series Futures Betting Lines

Sunday's Pitching Match-Up
Cahill is one-for-three on quality starts this season; first, he got nicked for five runs in four innings in a 7-5 loss to these Dodgers back on March 23 in Australia; then he held San Francisco to two runs in six innings of a 2-0 D'Backs defeat; and most recently he gave up five runs in less than four innings against those same Giants in a 7-3 Arizona loss Tuesday night.

But in four starts last year vs. LA Cahill was tough, allowing just four ER and 18 hits through 25 2/3 innings; the Diamondbacks won three of those four games.

Haren, a former D'Back, is two-for-two on quality starts for his new team; first, he held San Diego to one unearned run thought six innings of a 5-1 Dodgers win; then he held Detroit to one run in six innings of a 3-2 LA victory.

Both those games played UNDER on the totals.

Haren started once last year for Washington against the Diamondbacks, throwing seven innings of shut-out ball in a 2-0 Nats win.

Take a Look at Sunday's MLB Picks of the Day

Sunday's Free Pick
The Dodgers are hot, the D'Backs are not; plus, while Haren has been very good in his first two starts of this season, Cahill has allowed 12 runs in 13 2/3 innings. We're a little surprised the line on this game isn't higher than it is. We'll go with LA, at the -120 offered at Pinnacle, for our free pick for Sunday.


12th April
Dodgers vs. Cardinals Game 2

By: Ron Patrick


LA took Game 1 of this series Friday night 6-0, getting a solid bounce-back effort from Hyun-Jin Ryu and six hits and six RBI from the 3-4 combo of Ramirez-Gonzalez. The Dodgers won as -110 favorites, and the game stayed UNDER its total of 8.5.

Los Angeles goes for the series victory when the teams meet for Game 2 Saturday evening (8:10 pm ET).


Saturday's Line
As of early Saturday AM most shops were chalking LA and Zack Greinke at around -125 over Arizona and Wade Miley, with a total of 8.5 on the MLB odds board. The Dodgers could also be gotten at around +135 on the run line.


Saturday's Pitching Match-Up
Miley (2-1, 4.05) is one-for-three on quality starts this season. Most recently he held Colorado to two runs and seven hits in eight innings of a 5-3 Arizona victory last Sunday. So for the season he's allowed nine runs and 21 baserunners (hits + walks) in 20 innings, with 15 strikeouts.

Miley started the first game of this season against LA down in Australia three weeks ago, giving up three runs in five innings of a 3-1 D'Backs defeat.

Last year, in three starts vs. the Dodgers, Miley gave up eight runs and 27 baserunners through 18 2/3 innings; Arizona won two of those games.

Greinke (2-0, 3.27) is one-for-two on quality starts so far; first, he held San Diego to two runs but only pitched five innings; then he held San Francisco to two runs through six innings. He's permitted just 10 baserunners in 11 innings, while striking out 13. LA has won both of his starts.

Greinke started three times against Arizona last year, allowing just four runs and 15 baserunners in 20 innings; the Dodgers won all three of those games.

In fact, LA is 24-6 in Greinke's 30 starts since joining the club.


Betting Trends
LA went 66-43 against right-handed starters last year, but just 26-27 against lefties. Some of that, though, might be attributed to all those games Matt Kemp and Hanley Ramirez missed.


Free Pick for Saturday
We give Greinke the edge in the pitching match-up, and Yasiel Puig and Kemp might both be in the starting lineup. So we'll go with the Dodgers, at the -118 offered at The Greek, for our free pick for Saturday.


11th April
Dodgers vs. Cardinals Game 1

By: Ron Patrick


The teams continue their NL West rivalry in a more familiar setting when they play a three-game series in Phoenix starting Friday night (9:40 pm ET). 

We'll follow this series, which might include some bad blood, through to the end, with updated pitching match-ups and free MLB betting picks, for what they're worth.


The Lines
In the early betting LA and Hyun-Jin Ryu were favored by around -120 for Friday's series opener over Arizona and Brandon McCarthy, with a total of 8.5. The Dodgers could also be gotten at around +135 giving the run and a half on the run line.

Bigger-picture, The Greek was chalking Los Angeles at -125 to win this series, with the D'Backs getting +105 as home dogs.


The Situation
LA just split two games at home with Detroit, losing Wednesday 7-6. The Dodgers tied the game with three runs in the bottom of the ninth, but reliever Kenley Jansen gave up a lead-off homer to Victor Martinez in the top of the tenth. 

Jansen also blew a save Tuesday night, but LA won that game in extra innings. 

Arizona, meanwhile, just took two of three games from the Giants in San Francisco, rallying to win a rubber match Thursday 6-5 in 10 innings. 

At 6-4 the Dodgers are tied for first in the NL West with the Giants, while the D'Backs, at 4-8, are in last place.  

These teams, as mentioned above, opened the season with a two-game series at the Sydney Cricket Grounds, swept by the Dodgers by scores of 3-1 and 7-5. 

Last year LA won 11 more games than Arizona, but the D'Backs took the season series 10 games to nine. Also, the totals leaned toward the OVERS in this series last year by a 12-7 margin, even though  Dodgers-Diamondbacks games averaged a very normal 8.3 runs per.


Friday's Pitching Match-Up
McCarthy will be making his third start of this season; he opened by giving up five runs in 6 2/3 innings against San Francisco, then gave up six runs in six innings against Colorado. Arizona lost both those games, and both games played OVER their totals. 

McCarthy started twice against LA last year, allowing six ER and 19 baserunners (hits + walks) in 12 1/3 innings; thanks to some good run support the D'Backs won both those games, and both played OVER. 

Ryu will be making his fourth start of this season already. First, he held these Diamondbacks scoreless through five innings; then he held the Padres scoreless through seven innings; but last time out Ryu got nicked for six ER and eight hits in just two innings of an 8-4 Los Angeles defeat against San Francisco.

Ryu has started six times against Arizona in his season-plus in the league, giving up 16 ER and 45 baserunners through 36 innings; the Dodgers have split those six games, while four of those games played OVER on the totals.


At the Bat
LA is averaging four runs per game this season, owns a .316 team OBP, has hit 10 homers and leads the Majors in stolen bases with a dozen.

Arizona is averaging 4.3 RPG, owns a .309 OBP, has hit nine homers and stolen eight bases.


Injury Update
Dodgers OF Yasiel Puig has missed recent action with a sore thumb, and is questionable for this series. Also, LA is without catcher AJ Ellis and set-up man Brian Wilson, after placing both on the DL. And of course Clay Kershaw is out with a sore back, so the D'Backs won't have to worry about running into him this weekend.


Friday's Free Pick 
This series could get interesting, considering the D'Backs didn't take too kindly to LA's pool party at Chase Field after clinching the West last year.  

Bottom line, we give LA and Ryu the edge in the pitching match-up, and even without Wilson the Dodgers still own the better bullpen. Finally, LA played 23 games above .500 last year against right-handed starters, and is 5-3 vs. righties this year. So we'll go with the Dodgers, at the -109 offered at Pinnacle, for our free MLB pick for Friday.
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