Dodgers vs. Brewers MLB Picks: Compelling Reasons to Eat the Chalk with Kershaw on the Mound

David Lawrence

Monday, May 4, 2015 11:40 AM GMT

What's the best bet tonight, as the LA Dodgers play one of the worst teams in the National League, the Milwaukee Brewers? Can they avoid stumbling on the MLB betting lines on the road?

The Los Angeles Dodgers Can Win Because…
They are a better team and are favored by MLB Odds. They are getting superior relief pitching but has its ace on the mound in this game. Los Angeles is sending Clayton Kershaw to the hill on Monday. Kershaw’s ERA is an ordinary 3.73, but he had an ERA of 5.84 just a few weeks ago, so he’s definitely going in the right direction, having allowed two earned runs or fewer in his last three starts. He’s settling into the season, and that should be very good news for the Dodgers and anyone who wants to bet on them in this game. Kershaw handled Milwaukee last year, giving up just four runs in 17 innings across two starts, for a 2.12 ERA. He threw one complete game against Milwaukee and should be able to keep the Brewers off balance here. Milwaukee has one of the worst records in the National League and has struggled to play consistently well this season. Kershaw should like the matchups he has with almost all of Milwaukee’s hitters, Ryan Braun being the exception that proves the rule.

The other thing to keep in mind about the Dodgers is that their bullpen is actually the hottest part of the team right now. The Los Angeles relief corps has pitched 26 straight scoreless innings, a streak which has encompassed the past week. Adam Liberatore, Yimi Garcia, Sergio Santos, Paco Rodriguez, Juan Nicasio, and J.P. Howell were all part of the Dodgers’ 1-0, 13-inning win over Arizona on Sunday. Everyone’s contributing a lot in the Dodger pen. That makes this team very tough; relief pitching was a noticeable weakness in last year’s playoffs.

The Dodgers also have to like their chances because veteran Milwaukee starter Kyle Lohse has been horrible so far in 2015. Lohse trots out a 7.28 ERA for this game. He’s been regularly roughed up and has yet to really find a release point at which he is comfortable. That’s a huge problem for the Brewers.

 

The Milwaukee Brewers Can Win Because…
They are confident that Lohse can turn things around. He was a very steady starter for the team last season and was a solid part of the St. Louis Cardinals’ rotation in prior seasons. This is a fixable problem for Milwaukee. Bettors will also take note that Lohse, in his one start against Los Angeles last season, held the Dodgers to just one run in 6.1 innings. Lohse is going to be motivated to pitch well in this game – not just because the Brewers need to get hot, and not just because it’s the Dodgers he’s playing, but because he’s going up against Clayton Kershaw. Great athletes want to go up against the best. You could see Lohse step up his game in this situation.

 

Outlook
The Dodgers are a much better team than the Brewers and there’s really no compelling reason to take Milwaukee. You have to go with Los Angeles with your MLB Picks when you examine this game from several angles.

MLB Pick: Dodgers -177 at WagerWeb