The Dodgers shoot for a sweep of the Angels in Anaheim Wednesday night, but they can be a risky MLB pick any time somebody other than Clayton Kershaw or Zack Greinke start on the mound. For tonight, it's Mat Latos, which makes handicapping this game much more difficult.
Dodgers-Angels Wednesday Odds
As of this writing, the best price available on Anaheim with Garrett Richards as they try to stave off the sweep was the -140 at BetOnline, while LA with the struggling Mat Latos was getting +135 MLB odds at GTBets.
Los Angeles has taken the first two games of this series, including a 6-4 decision Tuesday night. The Dodgers got another quality start from Clay Kershaw Tuesday, and while the bullpen tried to blow it, they also covered against the run line, much to our delight.
So LA (80-58), which has won five games in a row, retained an 8.5-game lead over San Francisco in the NL West, and a three-game lead over the Mets in the battle for the two seed in the upcoming National League playoffs.
Anaheim (69-69), meanwhile, has lost three of its last four, and now trails Texas by 4.5 games in the battle for the second American League Wild Card berth.
The Dodgers now lead this season's Freeway Series five games to none, with the OVERS going 4-1.
Richards (13-10, 3.77), by our strict standards, is 14-for-26 on quality stats this year, and two for his last two. Last Friday he held Texas to two runs through six innings, although he also walked five, and just before that he limited Cleveland to three runs through seven innings, with nine strikeouts. On the season Richards has allowed 154 hits through 167 innings, walked 55 and struck out 131.
Anaheim is 15-11 in Richards' starts, with the OVERS also going 15-11.
This will be Richards' first start against Los Angeles since August of last season, when he fashioned a nine-inning, complete-game shutout, allowing just five hits, walking two while whiffing nine, in a 5-0 Angels triumph.
Latos (4-9, 4.92) is only eight-for-21 on quality starts, one-for-five since joining the Dodgers rotation back in early August. Last Thursday he gave up four runs in four innings against San Diego, and over his last four starts he's allowed 16 earned runs through 17 1/3 innings. On the season, including his 16 starts with Miami, Latos has allowed 115 hits through 112 innings, walked 25 and struck out 79.
The Dodgers are 2-3 in games Latos has started for them, with the OVERS going 4-1.
Latos made his debut for his new team back on Aug. 2 against this Anaheim squad, allowing just one run and four hits through six innings of a game Los Angeles eventually won 5-3 in 10 innings.
Wednesday's Batting Splits
Los Angeles ranks sixth in the Bigs this season against right-handed pitching with a .324 team on-base percentage, and eighth with a .416 team slugging percentage.
Anaheim, meanwhile, ranks 24th against righties with a .309 team OBP and 19th with a .399 team slugging percentage.
Ballpark Totals Factor
Games played at Angel Stadium this season are 38-31 on the UNDERS, averaging 7.6 runs per.
Dodgers-Angels Free Picks
We couldn't come up with an MLB pick on the side for this game because, while LA is the better outfit, we simply don't trust Latos. But we're thinking we can trust him to give up four or five runs before he leaves the game. That's why we like the OVER.
MLB Pick: OVER 8.5 runs (-105) at JustBet