Dodgers Send the Giants to Smallville as Run Line Winners

giants dodgers

Doug Upstone

Friday, July 28, 2017 3:18 PM GMT

This season, for the most part, whatever could go right has for the Los Angeles Dodgers and whatever could go wrong has for the San Francisco Giants as the teams prepare to meet Friday in this storied rivalry.

With these two teams expected to be battling for the NL West crown, instead the first-place Dodgers have unfathomable 31.5 game lead over the last-place Giants and it's not even August yet. Time to break down piece-by-piece what to look for in Game 1 Friday in L.A.. Somewhere in between these two teams is where I reside with my latest MLB picks at 26-20.

 

Pitching Matchup: Moore vs. Wood

The season by Matt Moore (3-10, 5.82 ERA) has perfectly reflected San Francisco's season: a complete disaster. The left-hander has not fooled opposing batters all year, permitting a .300 batting average (.252 is career norm), and on the road like he will be tonight Moore has an unsightly 7.61 ERA. I witnessed him pitch twice in spring training and still have the note that reads, "Moore has nothing," and that has continued into all of 2017. At Dodger Stadium, the 28-year-old is 2-2 with a bloated 6.86 ERA.

Alex Wood (11-1, 2.17) finally suffered his first defeat in last start, being shelled by his old team Atlanta, 12-3, not making out of the fifth inning in allowing nine runs (seven earned) on nine hits and walking four. That was the pitcher we used to see with the Braves, good one start and not the next, but this season Wood has devoured right-handed hitters, who are batting .167 and have a ridiculously low .233 slugging percentage. The lefty is 1-2 with a 4.17 ERA in four starts vs. San Francisco.

 

These Offenses Could Not Be More Different

Among the numerous aspects of San Francisco's sorry season is its offense. The Giants are 29th in scoring, last in the NL in home runs and slugging percentage, and opposing pitchers are fearless they cannot beat them and just keep pounding the strike zone, which is why they are only 10th in walks. Take away Buster Posey's .328 average and .413 OBP and the San Fran offense would be even more atrocious.

The Dodgers' offense is just the opposite of their rivals. They average 5.1 RPG, are 4th in home runs in the Senior Circuit and 2nd in slugging percentage while leading the league in free passes earned. Top to bottom, as good as the NL has.

 

Betting Odds, Head-To-Head & Bullpen Numbers

The MLB odds have L.A. as enormous -290 favorite with a total of 8. The Dodgers have taken 13 of the past 21 when playing at home and the 'over' is 11-10. The bullpen pitchers in the bright white unis have a 2.86 ERA (1st), while those in the traveling grays are at 4.11 (6th).

 

The Winner Is ...

In truth, only one way I see to bet this contest and that is on the run line. The Dodgers are a spectacular 44-13 at home, with average margin of victory 2.2 RPG. The Giants are 3-13 away vs. a team with a bullpen whose WHIP is 1.15 or lower, losing by 3.2 RPG.

Free MLB Pick: Dodgers RLBest Line Offered: Heritage

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