Dodgers vs. Reds MLB Picks and Predictions

One game back. The Cincinnati Reds and Los Angeles Dodgers open a three-game weekend series with both teams one game back as the postseason races hit their home stretch. The Dodgers have won six straight and eight of their last 10 to move within one game of the NL West-leading Giants. The Reds have lost seven of 10 to fall a game back in the race for the second National League Wild Card

Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Cincinnati Reds

Friday, September 17, 2021 - 7:10 PM ET at Great American Ball Park

One game back. No phrase evokes the desperation and hope of the MLB stretch run for the playoffs like “one game back.”

As the Los Angeles Dodgers and Cincinnati Reds open a three-game weekend series at the Great American Ball Park, both teams find themselves one game back from their postseason goals.

The Dodgers have already clinched a playoff spot, but the Wild Card is not the goal for the defending champions—it’s the consolation prize. Los Angeles has won six straight games and eight of the last 10 to open the weekend series one game back of the National League West leading Giants, the closest they’ve been since before Labor Day.

https://youtu.be/aooMuxgQGfk?t=458

The Reds made a late-season push to catch and pass the San Diego Padres for the final Wild Card berth, then dropped seven of their last 10 games to lose their grip on the spot. Cincinnati opens play against the Dodgers one game back of the red hot Cardinals, who blew past both the Padres and Reds to stake a Wild Card claim.

How the West is Being Won

The Dodgers have swept back-to-back series, against the Padres and Diamondbacks, to move to within striking distance of the division lead.

One reason for the hot streak is that, at long last, the Dodgers are getting healthy. After struggling with bullpen games and spot starts since June, Los Angeles once again has a five-man starting rotation, with the return of Tony Gonsolin and Clayton Kershaw from the injured list.

The Dodgers are also getting well. Cody Bellinger, who has been in a horrific season-long slump, has reached base on four straight games and showing signs that things may be clicking at long last. If the Dodgers can’t run down the Giants, there’s a very real chance that they could face the Reds in a one-and-done Wild Card game to start the postseason.

Tony Gonsolin #26 of the Los Angeles Dodgers delivers a pitch. Dilip Vishwanat/Getty Images/AFP

With a playoff bid in the bag, the Dodgers may have been tempted to shuffle the rotation to avoid giving Cincy batters one more look at their best pitchers, in preparation for that game. But Los Angeles has one goal—the West Division, on its way to defending the title.

“We’re going to keep guys in their same slots and expect to win every game remaining on the schedule,” manager Dave Roberts said.

That means Walker Buehler will open the series on Friday. The Cy Young candidate is 14-3 with a 2.32 ERA this year. Buehler went seven innings to beat the Padres for his first win in more than three weeks last time out.

Getting Back a Key Piece

The Reds hope to have a key bat back in their lineup for the weekend, perhaps as soon as Friday night. Jesse Winker was sent to the injured list on August 16 with an intercostal strain. The Reds certainly missed him in the lineup. Winker is fifth in the NL in batting, and, despite missing a month, he’s still fifth in the NL in doubles. More importantly, the Reds have gone 11-16 since losing him.

He went 0-for-5 in a Triple-A rehab game on Wednesday, and Reds manager David Bell said, “He’s getting close,” Reds manager David Bell said on Thursday. “He needed at least another game. Spoke with him last night. He’s going to play today, and then we’ll go from there. If everything goes well today, there is a chance he’ll be back in the lineup tomorrow.”

It turned out, Winker didn’t play in the Triple-A game on Thursday, as scheduled, because he was already headed back to Cincinnati to rejoin the team.

The Reds will start Luis Castillo, who is 7-15, 4.24 on the year, but those numbers don’t represent his recent work. In the last month, he’s lowered his ERA from 7.61 with a string of solid starts. He’s gone at least six innings in his last six outings. In his last five, he has an ERA of 2.54 and a WHIP of 0.95 while striking out more than a batter an inning.

Luis Castillo #58 of the Cincinnati Reds reacts after being pulled from the game. Ron Schwane/Getty Images/AFP

The Pick

Every time the Dodgers get close enough to sniff the NL West lead, something seems to happen to knock them back. So, with the boulder pushed almost back to the top of the hill, there’s reason to think the Giants will be able to pull away once more. The Reds are getting Winker back, and they have a better pitcher on the mound than the stat line indicates. Take a flyer and look for Cincy to open with a home win for your MLB picks.

MLB Pick: (visit our Sportsbook Review)

*The pick reflects the line at the moment the writer made the play, the odds at the beginning of this article show the live line movement. Since the lines might vary, don’t forget to refer back to our live odds.