The Los Angeles Dodgers and San Diego Padres meet once again, as the division rivals open up a three-game series at Petco Park. Here are our Dodgers-Padres picks.
The Dodgers are 10-3 against the Padres this season, and with the best offense in MLB, they’re looking to do a lot of damage in San Diego once again this weekend. They’re 6-1 at Petco Park in 2022 and their +298 run differential for the season is a league-best by an astounding 103-run margin.
The Padres lost three of their last five games and the Dodgers have had their number this season to say the least. Every game is a must-win for San Diego from here on out, with the Milwaukee Brewers just 2.5 games behind them for a wild-card spot in the NL.
Dodgers vs. Padres Game Info
Date/Time: Friday, Sept. 9, 9:40 p.m. ET
Location: Petco Park, San Diego, CA
Weather: 79 degrees, 52% chance of precipitation, 21-mph wind
Dodgers vs. Padres Odds Analysis
The Dodgers are the moneyline favorites, ranging from -165 at DraftKings and BetMGM to -168 at FanDuel. L.A. has received 78% of the money to win outright but for just 54% of the handle.
The total is set at 8.5 at all major sportsbooks. Over 80% of the tickets and cash are backing the Over.
Dodgers vs. Padres Projected Pitchers
Dustin May (1-2, 3.94 ERA, 1.06 WHIP) vs. Mike Clevinger (5-6, 3.96 ERA, 1.18 WHIP)
May returned from Tommy John surgery on August 20 and has made just three starts this season. On the bright side, he pitched at least five innings in every start since his return. On the downside, he’s been rather hot and cold in his three starts. In his last start against the Padres on September 1, he let up four hits, six earned runs, and issued five walks. Walks have been a big issue for May since his return, with a 4.5 BB/9 rate.
Clevinger makes his 18th start of the year for the Padres. He allowed multiple earned runs in each of his last four starts. He made his most recent start against the Dodgers on September 4 and went just 3 1/3 innings, allowing four hits, five earned runs, two walks, and striking out four batters. Clevinger’s strikeout rate right now is at a career-low of 20.5%. He also has a barrel rate of 6.1%, which does not bode well against a powerful Dodgers lineup.
Dodgers vs. Padres Picks
Dodgers vs. Padres ML Pick
Dodgers (-165) ★★★
Simply put, as is always the case when the Dodgers are playing, they’re the better team in this matchup. While we don’t know what to expect from May, Los Angeles has the best and most consistent offense in MLB and that’s what continues to set the Dodgers apart and push them ahead.
The Dodgers are 40-12 in their last 52 games against right-handed pitchers. As mentioned, Clevinger’s barrel rate of 6.1% means hard contact has been an issue for the righty and no one is going to capitalize more off of that than this Dodgers lineup.
Dodgers vs. Padres O/U Pick
Over 8.5 (-115) ★★★
The Over hit in six of San Diego's last seven games. These are two high-scoring teams, and the Over is 4-1-1 in the last six head-to-head games.
Factor in the inconsistency of these two starting pitchers, May’s walk rate, and Clevinger’s strikeout and barrel rate, and this is set to be another high-scoring game.
Dodgers vs. Padres Prop Pick
May under 4.5 strikeouts (+118) ★★
May struck out five batters in his last start against the Padres, but given the inconsistency, as he still finds his footing since his return from injury, I’m taking the Under on this prop.
The Padres are in crunch time and need big-time production from their lineup as they look to pull ahead in the wild-card race. They’re going to need some very smart at-bats, especially when facing the Dodgers, and May’s likely the most volatile starter they’ll see in this Dodgers' starting rotation.
Where to Bet on Dodgers-Padres Picks
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Dodgers-Padres picks from 9/9/2022 at 1:06 p.m. ET.