Dodgers-Braves MLB Picks: LA to Avoid the Brooms & Go 'Over'

Darin Zank

Wednesday, July 22, 2015 11:07 AM UTC

Wednesday, Jul. 22, 2015 11:07 AM UTC

Atlanta shoots for a sweep of the Dodgers Wednesday afternoon at Turner Field, as MLB odds underdog. But this handicapper believes LA can take the win on a Braves pitcher bombed over recent meetings.

Dodgers-Braves Wednesday Betting Odds
In the early betting the best line we could find on LA with Mike Bolsinger was the -139 offered at 5Dimes, which was also offering the best line on Atlanta and Julio Teheran, +134. And every book we checked with was listing a total on today's game of 7.5 runs.


The Situation
Atlanta has taken the first two games of this series, by scores of 7-5 and 4-3. The Braves are now 26-19 at home this season, while Los Angeles is 20-25 on the road.

At 45-49 overall Atlanta sits six games out of the second National League wild-card spot.

Meanwhile, at 53-42 the Dodgers have seen their lead in the NL West shrink to 2.5 games over second-place San Francisco.


Wednesday's Starting Pitchers
Teheran (6-4, 4.53) is eight-for-19 on quality starts this season, and two for his last three. Last time out he gave up two runs in 4 2/3 innings against the Cubs, and over his last three starts he's allowed five runs through 18 2/3 innings.

Atlanta is 11-8 in Teheran's starts, with the totals skewing toward the OVERS by a 14-5 margin.

In four career starts against Los Angeles, including a poor effort back in May, Teheran has been touched for 21 runs in 22 1/3 innings; the Braves lost all four of those games, and three of those games played OVER.

Bolsinger (4-3, 3.04) is five-for-14 on quality starts, and just one for his last seven, in part because of a short leash. Last time out he threw four innings against Washington, allowing one run, in that game shortened by a lighting problem at Nationals Park. And just before that he held Milwaukee to two runs through six innings.

LA is 7-7 in Bolsinger's starts, with the totals splitting 7-7.

In Bolsinger's only career start against Atlanta, a little more than one year ago, he got nailed for seven runs – five earned - and 10 hits in less than four innings of a 10-4 Dodgers defeat.


Wednesday's Free Picks
The Dodgers let us down Tuesday, but we don't think they'll get swept. We'll go with LA today. Also, considering the track records of these two starters against today's opponents, we're thinking OVER.

MLB Picks: Dodgers -139 at 5Dimes and OVER 7.5 runs (+101) at Pinnacle

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