Division Rivalry MLB Picks: Royals vs. Indians 3-Game Series

Darin Zank

Monday, April 27, 2015 12:22 PM GMT

Monday, Apr. 27, 2015 12:22 PM GMT

Kansas City grabbed the opener of this series Monday night 6-2, keeping Cy Young winner Corey Kluber win-less this season. Can the Royals add to the Tribe's home miseries Tuesday night?

29th APR
Tuesday's Game 3

By: Ron Patrick

 

Royals-Indians Game 3 Betting Odds
As of early Wednesday morning the best price we could find on Cleveland and Danny Salazar was the -120 offered at GT Bets, while KC and Yordano Ventura were getting +115 at WagerWeb. And most of the MLB odds were listing the total on tonight's game at seven runs.

 

Game 2 Recap
Kansas City trailed 5-3 through six innings Tuesday night, then put up a six spot in the top of the seventh to take the lead, on its way to an 11-5 victory. The Royals put a smile on our face by winning as +125 underdogs on Tuesday's MLB betting line, and the game played OVER a total of 7.5.

KC starter Jeremy Guthrie gave up four runs through five innings, but the Royals bullpen allowed just one run through four innings. Meanwhile, Cleveland starter Trevor Bauer gave up three runs through six innings, but the Indians pen got nicked for eight runs in just three innings of work. Kansas City rapped out 18 hits on the night, including four doubles and two homers.

Cleveland, on the other hand, has lost four games in a row, and eight of its last 11.

This capper previews the Rays vs. Yankees series too!

Wednesday's Pitching Match-Up
Salazar, who didn't make the Big Club coming out of Spring Training, is two-for-two on quality starts since getting the call a week and a half ago. Last Friday he held Detroit to one run through seven innings, striking out 11, and six days before that, in his season debut, he limited Minnesota to two runs through six innings, with 10 strikeouts. Cleveland won both those games.

Last year Salazar started four times against Kansas City, allowing 12 ER and 33 base-runners (hits + walks) through 21 innings. The Indians managed to split those four games, and three of those games played OVER the totals.

Ventura, appealing a suspension at the moment, is two-for-four on quality starts this year. Last Thursday he held the White Sox to two runs and five hits through seven innings, with one walk and eight strikeouts, which was a nice bounce-back performance after giving up five runs in less than four innings against Oakland five days previous. On the season Ventura has allowed 10 runs and 23 base-runners through 22 innings; KC is 3-1 in his starts this year, with the totals splitting 2-2.

Last year Ventura was tough in four starts against Cleveland, allowing just five earned runs and 29 base-runners through 28 2/3 innings. The Royals won all four of those games.

 

Game 3 Free Pick
Ventura tamed the Tribe last year, and KC is playing with some nice verve at the moment, which is a good thing when it comes to baseball betting. We like the Royals to complete the sweep tonight, so we're going to back them with our MLB picks.

Free MLB Pick: Kansas City +115 at WagerWeb

 

28th APR
Tuesday's Game 2

By: Ron Patrick

 

Royals-Indians Game 1 Recap
Monday's game was tied at 2-2 after five innings, but Kansas City scored once in the top of the sixth and three times in the seventh on its way to a 6-2 victory. The Royals won as +130 post-time favorites on the MLB odds, and the game, to our dismay, sneaked OVER its total of seven runs thanks in part to a key two-out Cleveland error – one of three the Tribe committed on the night – that resulted in pair of unearned Kansas City runs in that seventh inning.

Cleveland managed just four hits Monday night, and is now 1-5 at home this season.

Kluber got touched for six runs – four earned – and 10 hits through 6 1/3 innings, while Royals starter Jason Vargas gave up two runs through five innings, although he also walked five batters.

Peruse the MLB Futures Odds for Division Winners & World Series Picks

Game 2 Betting Odds
In early action Tuesday morning Cleveland and Trevor Bauer could be found giving -127 at YouWager, while KC and Jeremy Guthrie were getting +123 at GT Bets. And most books were posting a total of seven runs.

 

Tuesday's Starting Pitchers
Bauer is a perfect three-for-three on quality starts this season; he then missed his last start because of a case of food poisoning. Last time out, eight days ago, Bauer threw seven scoreless innings against the White Sox, allowing four hits while striking out seven. And for the season Bauer has allowed just two runs and eight hits, although he's also walked 11 guys, through 19 innings.

Cleveland is 2-1 in Bauer's starts, with all three starts playing UNDER the totals.

Last year Bauer started three times against Kansas City, giving up seven runs and 28 base-runners (19 hits + 10 walks) through 16 innings. The Indians won two of those games, and two of those games played UNDER.

Guthrie is 0-for-three on quality starts this year, coming off a rough outing last Wednesday against Minnesota in which he gave up three runs on six hits and six walks in five innings. On the season Guthrie has allowed 11 runs on 26 base-runners through 18 innings.

KC is 2-1 in Guthrie's starts, with the totals going 2-1.

Guthrie started three times against Cleveland last year, all at Progressive Field, and got roughed up for 11 runs and 30 hits through 16 1/3 innings. The Royals lost two of those games.

 

Game 2 Free Pick
Bauer owns the edge in the pitching match-up, but the walks concern us. And he struggled a bit with the Royals last year. Also, at the moment the Indians seem to be finding ways to lose. So we believe the value MLB pick on today's line resides with road dog.

Free MLB Pick: Kansas City +125 at BookMaker

27th APR
Monday's Series Opener

By: Ron Patrick

 

Royals-Indians Game 1 Betting Odds
As of early Monday morning the best line we could find on Cleveland with Corey Kluber was the -150 offered at BetOnline, while Kansas City and lefty Jason Vargas could be gotten at +150 at 5Dimes. And the total on Monday's game sat at seven runs.

Also, BetOnline was chalking the Indians at -165 to win this series, with the Royals getting +145.

 

Series Set-Up
Cleveland just lost two of three games at Detroit over the weekend, winning Friday 13-1 but losing Saturday 4-1 and Sunday 8-6. The Indians trailed 7-2 Sunday, got within 7-5 but couldn't complete the comeback.

Just before that the Tribe dropped two of three at the White Sox, and just before that they dropped two of three at Minnesota. In fact, Cleveland hasn't won a series since taking two of three from Houston to open the season.

Kansas City just lost two of three games at the White Sox over the weekend. The Royals won Thursday 3-2, but lost Friday's game 3-2 and Sunday's contest 5-3. Saturday's game was rained out.

The Royals led Sunday 3-0 heading into the bottom of the sixth, but a walk, a wild pitch and an error led to five Sox runs, only one of which was earned.

KC actually lost twice Sunday, first dropping the continuance of Friday's game, which was suspended after eight innings tied at 2-2.

Just before that series Kansas City took two of three games from Minnesota, and just before that it took two of three from Oakland.

Big-picture, at 12-6 overall the Royals sit in second place in the AL Central, a half-game back of first-place Detroit, while at 6-11 Cleveland sits in last place, six games back of the Tigers.

Last year Cleveland took the season series from KC ten games to nine, with the totals going 10-9.

 

Monday's Starters
Kluber is three-for-four on quality starts this season, but is coming a poor outing his last time out, when he gave up six runs and 13 hits in six innings against the White Sox. But prior to that he had held his first three opponents to six runs through 21 2/3 innings.

On the season the Cy Young winner has allowed 12 runs and 31 base-runners (hits + walks) in 27 2/3 innings. Cleveland has lost all four of his starts so far, but three of those starts played UNDER the totals.

Last year Kluber started four times against the Royals, holding them to four earned runs and 19 base-runners through 31 1/3 innings. The Indians split those four games, while three of those games stayed UNDER.

Vargas is one-for-three on quality starts this season. Last time out last Tuesday against Minnesota he gave up five runs and eight hits in less than six innings, and just before that those same Twins got to him for four earned runs and 10 hits in three innings. On the season Vargas has allowed 11 earned runs and 26 base-runners in 14 2/3 innings.

Kansas City is 2-1 in Vargas' starts, with the totals going 2-1.

Last year Vargas started four times against Cleveland, giving up 13 ER and 31 base-runners through 23 2/3 innings. The Royals went 1-3 in those starts, and three of those starts played OVER the MLB odds totals.

 

Monday's Batting Splits
Cleveland owns a .291 team OBP and a .301 team slugging percentage against left-handed pitching this season. Maybe that's why the Indians are 1-6 against left-handed starters this year.

Kansas City owns a .355 OBP and a .439 slugging percentage against righties.

Check out This Valuable Underdog for Monday's MLB Picks: Giants vs. Dodgers 

Injury Update
Kansas City OF Alex Rios and closer Greg Holland are both on the DL with various ailments. Also, the Royals have some suspensions hanging over their heads, following a skirmish with the White Sox last Thursday.

 

Game 1 Free Pick
Kluber gets the easy check-mark in the pitching matchup, but Cleveland's bats are positively pedestrian against left-handed pitching. So in expecting a low-scoring affair we'll go with the UNDER for our MLB pick.

Free MLB Pick: UNDER seven runs (+111) at Pinnacle

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