Diamondbacks vs. Rockies MLB Picks: Don't Let Odds Fool You

Charles Stark

Monday, May 4, 2015 12:12 PM UTC

Monday, May. 4, 2015 12:12 PM UTC

We handicap the MLB odds total for tonight's match at Coors Field, as NL West teams collide. Both Diamondbacks & Rockies starting pitchers are coming into this contest with ERA’s under 3.00.

Surprising Line
Talk about MLB Odds that jump out at you!  The over/under for this game is set at 10 which at first glance looks off, even with the game in Colorado.  After digging into some numbers though I look for both teams to score quite a few runs today.  Don’t let the line fool you.

Understand The Most Important Pitching Stats for Over-Under Bettors

Pitching Matchup
Josh Collmenter for the Dbacks takes on Tyler Matzek for the Rockies.  Collmenter on the year comes in with a solid 2.76 ERA and 1.13 WHIP, he also recently put the Rockies in check last week allowing 1 run in eight innings in Arizona.  But in his last start in Colorado he allowed 4 runs off of 9 hits in five innings and his overall ERA against the Rockies is over 5.00.  Matzek comes in with a 2.77 ERA and 1.55 WHIP, and he has actually pitched decent in Colorado with an overall ERA of 3.61 at home.  The issue is he struggles against right handed hitters and the Diamondbacks have some very good ones.  In his career right handers are hitting over .300 against him with a slugging of .474.


Good Not Great
Both the Dbacks and the Rockies have been pretty solid at the plate this year.  They both rank in the upper half of the league in most offensive categories.  Colorado ranks 5th in the league in batting average and slugging, and 4th in on base percentage.  The Dbacks rank 10th in hits and RBI’s per game. 

The number is what really gets me on this one.  The over under number usually gets a little inflated with games in Colorado, but with both pitchers past struggles connected to this situation I am looking for a lot of hits and a high scoring affair.  Again, don’t let the line fool you, this game could get ugly pretty quickly so I am taking the over and I recommend you add it to your MLB Picks on the day.

MLB Picks: Over 10 at WagerWeb

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