After yesterday's low-scoring affair & despite that surprising ninth inning by the Rockies there is still value on backing over the total as one of your MLB picks.
Odds makers have set the total of the MLB odds on this game at 10.5. That seems about right for a game that is played in Colorado and at most places the juice is a little bit higher on the over. Still, you can get over the total at regular odds of -110 at Heritage Sports.
Patrick Corbin gets the start for the Diamondbacks with a 3.78 ERA, 1.26 whip, 52 strikeouts, and a 3-3 record. He has been pretty solid in his last 10 starts but got roughed up in his last road start allowing four earned runs off of eight hits in just two innings in Cincinnati. Although I consider him a pitcher with a pretty decent future his road ERA this season is not very solid at 5.14 and batters are hitting .286 against him away from Arizona.
The Diamondbacks rank fourth in the major leagues in runs scored per game at 4.49, ninth in OPS at .731, and it .265 as a team ranking them sixth. Their runs per game doesn't change whether they are on the road or playing in Arizona and they are arguably the best hitting team in the National League. They rank second in the major leagues in hits per game behind Detroit and they rank in that same spot as well on the road just behind San Francisco.
Yohan Flande takes the mound for Colorado with a 4.09 ERA, 1.30 whip, 32 strikeouts and is 3-1 on the year. He is mostly just a spot starter but tends to give up runs on a pretty consistent basis. In his last four starts he is given up 12 earned runs over 22 innings pitched. He might be in for a rough outing today against a really good Arizona team with an OPS of .726 and a .264 batting average against left-handers the season.
The Rockies rank fifth in the major leagues in runs scored per game at 4.48, fourth in OPS at .752, and fourth in team batting average hitting .266 as a team. They lead the major leagues in batting average at home hitting .299, rank second in OPS, and second in runs scored. These statistics naturally go up because of where they play but that is why the MLB odds for totals in Colorado are always high. I can't imagine what would happen if the Toronto Blue Jays offense played in Colorado this season, yikes. Look for them to carry the momentum from that ninth-inning into today's first part of the doubleheader.
Although the run total was down yesterday both teams did combined for 23 hits which is a good sign going into today's matchup. Corbin is a pretty good pitcher for Arizona but has struggled on the road, and Flande has been just a spot starter this season. Both offenses should have plenty of quality at-bats and for my MLB pick we should see a high run total in the final score, back the over.
MLB Pick: Over 11 at Heritage