Diamondbacks vs. Nationals MLB Pick: Arizona to Upset a Hot Washington Team

Charles Stark

Monday, May 11, 2015 3:03 PM GMT

Monday, May. 11, 2015 3:03 PM GMT

The Arizona Diamondbacks welcome the Washington Nationals tonight and I'll preview this matchup of two extremely good pitchers as well as sharing my free MLB picks.

Pitcher value
The value in this game is with the Dbacks in my opinion. MLB odds makers have come out making them a +120 underdog and to me that is good value on a good team with a solid starter. Max Scherzer gets the start for the Nats which is why they are the natural favorite, but as we break down the numbers a bit I think Arizona has more than a good chance to win this game at home. Scherzer comes in with a 2.11 ERA and WHIP under 1.00, let’s face it, he is one of the best in the game. He did though get a little touched up in his last start allowing 5 earned runs off of 10 hits against the Marlins, as well his ERA last year on the road was 3.49 and batters hit over .250 against him. On the other side is Josh Collmenter for the Dbacks, he also just got roughed a bit his last outing allowing 5 earned runs but that was in Colorado and even Clayton Kershaw just gave up 5 earned there. Collmenter comes in with a 3.40 ERA and WHIP of 1.18. This year he has struggled but he doesn’t walk a lot of guys and in the last three years at home he has an ERA below 3.00 and batters are only hitting .220 against him.

 

Washington is hot but…
The stats over the last few games point to Washington offensively, and some of that is due to Bryce Harper just being on fire.  But on the year the Dbacks have the better numbers in batting average, hits, total bases, runs per game, and on base %. Arizona is in the top ten in the league in all of these categories.

 

Outlook
Good game and good pitchers. Collmenter is the lesser known of the two but he is a veteran with good stuff that could keep the Nats in check.  Should be a good one but for me the value is with the Dbacks in this spot so add them to you Monday's MLB picks

Free MLB Pick: Diamondbacks at 5Dimes.

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