Diamondbacks vs. Marlins MLB Picks and Odds Analysis

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Diamondbacks vs. Marlins MLB Picks and Odds Analysis
Adam Duvall #14 of the Miami Marlins celebrates with Corey Dickerson #23, Brian Anderson #15 and Miguel Rojas #19 after hitting a three-run home run. Michael Reaves/Getty Images/AFP

Fodder for another team’s brooms this past weekend, the Miami Marlins have a chance to do the sweeping themselves on Thursday’s baseball betting card in an East-West matchup with the Arizona Diamondbacks.

Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Miami Marlins

Thursday, May 06, 2021 – 06:40 PM EDT at loanDepot park

Miami has taken the first two contests in the set by decisive margins, banging away for a 9-3 win over Arizona in Tuesday’s opener before busting out with an 8-0 whitewashing on Wednesday. It was a huge eighth inning that carried the Marlins to the Game 1 decision, while Game 2 saw them jump on Diamondbacks starter Luke Weaver for six early runs.

It’s the first meeting between Arizona and Miami since September 2019, and the Marlins have now captured five of the last seven clashes with the Diamondbacks. Each of the first two contests went past 7½-run totals, extending that streak in the rivalry to six consecutive ‘over’ winners.

Snakes’ Last 5 Games Cash ‘Over’ Tickets

Arizona turns to veteran Madison Bumgarner (3-2, 5.58) in hopes of getting out of South Beach with a win, while Miami pins its hopes for a broom job on Pablo Lopez (0-2, 2.34). A quick check of the best sportsbooks finds the Marlins chalked between -130 and -135, along with another 7½-run total that is priced to the ‘under.’

Last year’s shortened season, Bumgarner’s first with the Diamondbacks, no doubt played a role in why it still seems strange seeing him in an Arizona uniform. And there’s no doubt the veteran lefty would like to forget that 2020 campaign when he logged a 6.48 ERA in nine starts. Those struggles continued in his first three assignments this season, all Arizona losses. Bumgarner has since righted the ship with three consecutive wins, including a 7-inning no-hitter 11 days ago in Atlanta as a +170 underdog at Intertops (visit our Intertops Review)

Bumgarner will be facing the Marlins for the first time since September 2019, and will be looking for his first win against Miami since August 2017. In eight career starts against the Marlins, the veteran southpaw is 2-2 with a 4.37 ERA (47.1 IP). Miami’s Brian Anderson is 3-for-5 against Bumgarner with a homer.

Fish Only NL East Team with Positive Run Differential

Miami spent last weekend in the nation’s capital where the Washington Nationals swept the Marlins by a combined score of 12-4. Their bats were pretty quiet in that set, and the losses sent the Marlins into the cellar of the NL East Division. With the two wins to begin this series with the Diamondbacks, Miami is only two games out of first, and is the only team in the division that has scored more runs than it has allowed.

Lopez started the opener of the Washington series as a small underdog on the MLB odds, and delivered seven scoreless frames before exiting. The Marlins eventually fell 2-1 in 10 innings, leaving them 2-4 in Lopez’s starts despite his 2.34 ERA. The 25-year-old Venezuelan has been outstanding at home in three assignments, pitching to a 1.02 ERA over 17+ innings.

This will be just the second time Lopez has faced Arizona, the first coming at Chase Field in September 2019 when he got a no-decision with six innings of 3-run baseball. Eduardo Escobar is the only Diamondbacks hitter to have taken Lopez deep.

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Now in his fourth big league season, Jansen Visconti will finish off the series at the plate for Jerry Meals’ umpire crew. It’s the sixth plate assignment of 2021 for the Latrobe, PA native, his first five running 2-3 O/U in the totals column. It’s also Visconti’s sixth time at the dish in Miami, the previous five resulting in a 3-2 O/U record.

They’ve had the roof closed for the first two games of the series, and with a 30%-40% chance of a late-afternoon, early-evening shower in Miami on Thursday, my guess is loanDepot park is buttoned up again. The thermometer will also be in the mid-80s at game time, so if they do open it up, the 3,500 or so fans inside can expect some muggy conditions, typical for Miami.

Bumgarner and Lopez project to keeping the score down in this one, but that string of ‘over’ winners in the rivalry prevent me from pulling the trigger on the ‘under’ with my free MLB pick. Instead, I’ll back the Fish to finish off the Snakes and get the sweep.

MLB pick: Marlins -130 at Heritage Sports (visit our Heritage Sports Review)

Marlins (-130)
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*The pick reflects the line at the moment the writer made the play, the odds at the beginning of this article show the live line movement. Since the lines might vary, don’t forget to refer back to our live odds.