Diamondbacks vs. Cardinals MLB Picks: Corbin & Wainwright Expected To Go 'Over' 8.5 Runs.

Matthew Jordan

Tuesday, April 26, 2016 9:23 PM GMT

It's Game 3 between St. Louis and Arizona and each team's projected starting pitcher looks to rebound from a shaky last outing. The Cards are slight favorites on the MLB odds.

What You Need To Know
The St. Louis Cardinals have largely not gotten great starting pitching this season as they ranked 17th in baseball entering Tuesday with a 4.34 ERA from their rotation. What has carried the staff has been an excellent bullpen. That's what made what happened in Monday's Game 1 of this series so surprising. Arizona won the game 12-7 by sending 14 batters to the plate in the sixth inning and scoring nine runs. Cards manager Mike Matheny had to make three pitching changes in that inning. St. Louis relievers had allowed 13 earned runs in 53.1 innings entering the game and a .176 batting average. They allowed eight alone on Monday. To be fair, two good Cards relievers, Jonathan Broxton and Seung Hwan Oh, were unavailable.

More potential bad news from that game for St. Louis: outfielder Matt Holliday left with right leg cramps. Holliday was 1-for-2 with a triple through three innings. Leg cramps might sound like nothing, but the soreness was in the same leg that twice landed Holliday on the disabled list in 2015. So you might not see him for a bit.

It's still early, but one of the best trades this offseason thus far had to be Arizona sending pitcher Chase Anderson, infielder Aaron Hill, minor league shortstop Isan Diaz and cash to Milwaukee for infielder Jean Segura. Anderson and Hill have done very little with the Brewers, while Segura entered Tuesday leading the Diamondbacks in average (.352), total bases (52) and  hits (32).

 

Probable Pitchers
St. Louis goes with struggling ace right-hander Adam Wainwright (0-3, 7.25). He has been one of baseball's best pitchers since returning in 2012 from Tommy John surgery that cost him all of 2011. Since 2012, Wainwright is one of five pitchers to strike out 20 percent of batters faced and walk fewer than 5.5 percent over at least 700 innings pitched. The other four are pretty good: Jordan Zimmermann, David Price, Clayton Kershaw and Chris Sale.

But Wainwright has allowed at least three runs in every start this year and not lasted more than six innings. He has 10 walks and just nine strikeouts in 22.1 innings, allowing 29 hits for a WHIP of 1.75 and opponents' batting average of .326. Hitters are swinging and missing at only 7.3 percent of his strikes and making contact on 85 percent of his pitches overall. When batters are ahead in the count against him, they are hitting .368 with a .586 on-base percentage. And hitters' averages increase each additional time they face him in a game, up to a .370 average in their third at-bat against him. Wainwright is throwing his fastball less and at diminished velocity. Maybe all those innings are catching up to the 34-year-old. Wainwright missed most of last season with an Achilles injury and didn't face Arizona. Segura has had success against him, going 8-for-19 with a double, homer and two RBIs.

The Cardinals are 4-1 on MLB odds in Wainwright's past five Wednesday starts.

Arizona goes with lefty Patrick Corbin (1-2, 3.51), who also has had Tommy John surgery in his career. He entered last Friday's home start vs. Pittsburgh off back-to-back quality outings but was hit around for five runs, four earned, and seven hits over six innings by Pittsburgh. The Pirates hit three homers off Corbin, the second time already this season he has given up three in a game (vs. Rockies). That's obviously not good. On the bright side, Corbin had two hits vs. the Pirates, a single in the third inning and a run-scoring double in the fourth.

Corbin faced St. Louis once last season, in the desert, and allowed one earned run and three hits over six innings. He struck out seven and walked one. No Cardinals have a ton of career at-bats off Corbin. Matt Carpenter and Yadier Molina are each 0-for-3 against him. The Diamondbacks are 8-3 on MLB picks in Corbin's past 11 vs. the NL Central. Take Arizona, go 'over' the total. I'm sure Wainwright will turn it around, but I'm not backing him until I see proof of that. The 'over' is 4-0 in Corbin's past four starts on four days of rest. 

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Free MLB Pick: Over 8.5
Best Line Offered: at BetOnline